REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Burma's nuclear potential brings up old fears in Thailand

May has been an unusual month with current and former world leaders urging the Burmese military junta to free Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
The Philippines, on behalf of Asean, also issued a similar appeal. Last week leading American female lawmakers got together with Laura Bush, wife of US President George W Bush, calling for Suu Kyi's freedom. Such a concerted global effort is unprecedented in recent history. Somehow, the junta is not the slightest bit perturbed by it. Yesterday marked nearly 12 years of incarceration for Suu Kyi without a criminal charge against her other than her opposition to a dictatorial regime. Then came the announcement that Russia would build a light-water nuclear reactor for research and power generation for Burma. It was as if this was planned to coincide with the visit of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Moscow recently. It was a show of Russia's support for the junta. While the international community continues to increase pressure on Burma, Thailand has yet to do its share. Due to political problems at home, the current government of General Surayud Chulanont has not paid much attention to Burma. For instance, the latest news of Burma's nuclear plan has escaped the scrutiny of Thai leaders, especially the military's top brass. For the sake of the country's future security and wellbeing, it is pivotal for Thailand, Burma's closest neighbour sharing a border of over 2,000 kilometres, to follow the junta's nuclear ambitions closely. Burmese scholars and pundits have already dismissed the idea that the junta wants to build nuclear bombs, as the country still lacks the resources and technical skills to do so. Furthermore, Burma has a good track record in this regard as it was one of the signatories on the global anti-nuclear proliferation campaign. Therefore, it should not be a cause for concern. For Thailand, the prospect of Burma having a nuclear reactor is indeed a great cause for concern. Its proximity to Burma can not be altered, while the aims and intentions of the ruthless regime can and so can the intent of its nuclear programmes. Recent lessons can be drawn from both North Korea and Iran. Those who remember the nuclear disaster at Chernobyl in 1986 understand how dangerous meltdowns or radiation leaks are - affecting in that case not only the former Soviet Union but also Scandinavia and parts of Western Europe. Russia does not have a good record of providing clean power reactors. Its nuclear industry remains secretive. Who can guarantee that there will be no leaks and accidents related to radiation? Can the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) serve as an efficient nuclear watchdog in the case of Burma? Given the lack of a safety regime in Russia's nuclear industry, any future nuclear mishap would harm Thailand the most due to spill-over fallout. The absence of data and terms of reference has made Burma's nuclear plan with Russia even more suspicious. Another factor that Thailand must be concerned about is the impact of this development on the Burmese national psyche. For 240 years following the country's devastating defeat in Ayutthaya at the hands of the Burmese in 1767, Thai leaders and their people have been living with an inferiority complex. Thai literature, films, music and other forms of popular cultures have tried to compensate for their psychological shortfalls by depicting the Burmese as fierce enemies who show no mercy. The last few years were exceptional in this regard with Thai authorities trying to boost national prestige and patriotism through films. Burmese officials have maintained their image as victors and used it against Thailand generation after generation. It has been a favourable psy-op tactic of the Burmese generals as they continue to a relish a long-gone past. To them, Thailand is always a nge naing, an inferior that could be trumped. However, Burma's feeling of superiority over Thailand began to wear off in the 1990s when Thailand enjoyed economic progress. In the age of globalisation, Burma's leaders realised that a past of victorious wars could boost nationalism but not the gross national product. To physically remind visitors of Burma's past greatness, statues of Burmese heroes, King Bayinnaung, were erected in key border towns opposite of Mai Sai, Ranong and Kanchanaburi. The Burmese junta also remembers vividly what happened in 2000 along the Thai-Burmese border under the command of former Army chief General Surayud Chulanont. He ordered Thai planes to bomb parts of Muang Yuon to stop the flow of amphetamine pills into Thailand after the Burmese junta failed to cooperate. In that sense, deep down Thailand remains a formidable enemy of Burma. The reality of today's Thailand and Burma is different than the past. These are no longer the days of old Ayutthaya, which Burma ransacked. The country has now become a major hub of Asian economic development. Thailand is fast moving from the status of a developing country towards a developed one, albeit with its current political hiccups. The Burmese leaders know they are lagging behind Thailand in every aspect. Therefore they need to create a new sense of nge naing that can reconstitute its past glory and overcome Thailand's progress. One way to do this is to develop a focused nuclear-related capacity, which no Asean country has ever attempted, in order to create a sense of superiority against its eastern neighbour. It is still a long way off and nothing is certain about Burma's nuclear intentions. However, it is safe to say that the Burmese junta's desire to create a new deterrent against Thailand or other perceived enemies will continue to intensify in coming years. Burma's normalisation of relations with North Korea coupled with its existing links with Pakistan could certainly increase the junta's nuclear capacity.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
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