Due to the unusual event on Thursday, when Administrative Court judges sought an audience with His Majesty the King, speculation has become diverse as to the outcome of the electoral-fraud cases against the two major parties, the extent of the verdicts' impact and their possible far-reaching consequences.

The Democrat Party seems resigned to its fate and is prepared to accept any result. If the party were dissolved by the verdict, it would still consider the damage bearable compared to that to the Thai Rak Thai if it meets the same fate.

As the judgement day has drawn nearer, speculation has become more intense. By this time, those following the trials have a pretty good idea what will happen. What they do not know yet is the full extent of the impact.

It will be a landmark case in Thai politics, especially if one or both parties have to be dissolved due to guilt proven beyond reasonable doubt.

Thai Rak Thai has yet to show grace and the willingness to accept a negative verdict. The party also has a pretty good idea what their verdict will be due to the material evidence presented, not to mention circumstantial evidence.

That's why key party figures have been quitting in droves to set up new groups, hoping that any verdict resulting in party dissolution will not affect them. Another reason is to distance themselves from party leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who stands damaged almost beyond repair due to charges linked to stock shenanigans and other misdeeds in office.

He faces a charge, the first of its kind in our legal history, labelled "betrayal of public trust" while in public office.

In all these months since the September 19 coup last year, Thai Rak Thai's remaining members and Thaksin's cronies continued to make noises to defend the party and their boss and his family members, believing that the public was too naïve to understand their tricks.

In addition to multi-pronged attacks on the government and the Council for National Security, some key members have been campaigning among and instigating rural villagers to organise rallies nationwide to show the judges that they will be very upset if there is a negative verdict for Thai Rak Thai.

Thai politics have never witnessed strong ideology or loyalty towards any particular party, especially among rural voters, who have always been accused of selling their votes for small sums offered by candidates for the House of Representatives or other offices.

The idea of having to sacrifice personal freedom, or even life, for the cause of any party is unheard of. Even several members of the Thai Rak Thai have impressive records as outstanding camp switchers, with peculiar ideological changes from liberal to conservative, socialist, communist and what not, depending on the election campaign funding offered and other promises.

Politicians have their price too. The ones with a large bloc of potential candidates with strong bases in provincial areas are considered darlings of the party, with promises for Cabinet seats. Their investment can be recouped with extensive profits from the plundering of national assets or taxpayer money.

Politics is therefore for vested and self-serving interests and the Constitution Tribunal verdict will be a matter of life and death for politicians. Thai Rak Thai stands to lose more if the verdict is negative, especially if the executive committee faces a five-year ban from political activity. The stakes are very high, as their hands will be prevented from reaching the cookie jar.

Those making hissing sounds for the tribunal judges to hear seem to think they can help their leader and his family members in their legal battles by hinting at riots and other moves affecting national security.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont will have to rush back from a visit to China to be prepared for any untoward incident. The armed forces stand ready to provide extra security if the police force cannot cope with the mob pressure, if Thai Rak Thai can manage to bring in thousands to create noisy scenes in front of the court on Wednesday.

What the public wants to see is a fair verdict, with the tribunal showing disregard for any kind of threat, perceived or real, or even simple bullying. The CNS or the police will have to deal with instigators and conspirators with a firm hand if necessary, to restore public faith in their competency to maintain law and order.

Thai Rak Thai claims 14 million party members, while the fact is that most key faction leaders have long since quit for self-preservation. The name does not smell sweetly amidst charges of extensive corruption and misdeeds faced by Thaksin, his family members and several cronies under investigation.

If there are rallies, most of those attending from rural provinces will have been hired to do so. It is not too difficult for law enforcement authorities to deal with the organisers and ringleaders to assure the public that any violence will neither be condoned nor go unpunished.

It will be a dark day in the country's history if justice cannot run its course and is compromised in any manner to allow the culprits off the hook due to political considerations.

Sopon Onkgara