Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont was expected to face a barrage of grilling from the National Legislative Assembly over his sagging performance over the past seven months. Many would like to see him go. But what Surayud experienced in the debate in the National Legislative Assembly yesterday turned out to be more like an awkward likae show, an anticlimax that left no doubt that any attempt to remove Surayud would be futile. Parliamentary rebels, such as Prasong Soonsiri or Khamnoon Sithisamarn, could manage to inflict only slight bruises on the prime minister. Other members of the National Legislative Assembly would not dare to break rank to take on Surayud.

Prasong famously quipped that the way Surayud addressed the National Legislative Assembly made it look like he was reading an academic dissertation. It was a boring show. But that was about it. Surayud would muddle through until the next general election. He would only step down after the hand-over to the democratically-elected government, leaving a legacy of one of the most boring administrations in modern Thai history. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the coup leader, and his Council for National Security (CNS), will leave with Surayud.

However, the political influence of the military's top brass will persist for the foreseeable future.

However, there are some political landmines to watch out for between now and the election. The Constitution Tribunal will, on Wednesday, hand down a verdict on the fate of the Democrat Party and the Thai Rak Thai Party over alleged election fraud. If found guilty, both parties will be sentenced to dissolution, which amounts to capital punishment for them. At this late hour, there are still fears among members of both parties that they will be sent to their political deaths by the Constitution Tribunal's ruling.

In constitutional terms, it would be unthinkable for the Constitution Tribunal to issue a verdict to dissolve both parties, both of which might have committed election fraud with varying degrees of guilt. Yet the two parties were not involved in any activities that proved to be dangerous to the democratic regime or to national security. Politics is about political parties. By dissolving the two parties, the Constitution Tribunal would deprive the country of the institutions that act as a pillar of its democracy.

The Democrat Party in particular has a long-standing history of 61 years in politics. It is an institution to be reckoned with. Thai Rak Thai, which was set up eight years ago and now claims a membership of 14 million, has also become an institution in a hurry. If Thaksin Shinawatra is the problem, then there are other ways to deal with him. Already he is about to face a series of lawsuits that would make it impossible for him to return to power. He should instead live happily in exile by becoming chairman of the Manchester City Football Club, if indeed he is interested in rubbing shoulders with the likes of Roman Abramovich, the Russian oil tycoon, who now owns Chelsea.

Rumours have been swirling around the capital for quite some time that if the Thai Rak Thai Party were to be dissolved on May 30, there would be trouble, if not bloodshed. Is this threat credible? Chaturon Chaisang, the leader of the Thai Rak Thai Party, has sought to calm this tension and at the same time deflect the spotlight on him. He indicated that it is in everybody's interest, including the Thai Rak Thai Party, to support a smooth transition to democracy. If there were political turmoil, the path to democracy might be interrupted, which would mean that the military rulers would have to stay in power longer. Then political uncertainty would drag on.

General Sonthi is quite confident that he will be able to deal decisively with any threat of political disruption. He has recently recruited General Pallop Pinmanee to serve as his advisor at the Internal Security Operations Command, where General Sonthi serves as head. The Internal Security Operations Command, set up during the Cold War period to go after communists, still retains its strength as the government's apparatus in dealing with the masses. If an undercurrent war should erupt, Pallop would try to nip it in the bud. Then there have been coup rumours after strange troop movements in Bangkok. These are sheer rumours at best. General Sonthi is still in full command.

What is the fate of the new constitution? Academics have come out strongly against the drafting of a new one. They are uncomfortable with the possibility that it might seek only to exorcise the ghost of Thaksin, while at the same time try to revive the power of the military and bureaucrats. In any event, the new constitution might never actually make it to the national referendum, where it could be killed. So it might be better off to let it die with the Constitution Drafting Assembly. But, in that situation, General Sonthi would have a free hand to pick any constitution he likes, as is stipulated in the interim constitution.

Would General Sonthi go back and pick the 1997 constitution and dust it off? Or would he take its best parts and merge them with the best parts of the 2007 constitution? Or would he go for a self-styled constitution and stuff it down our throats? We have to wait and see.

In the meantime, Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party and Dr Somkid Jatusripitak of the newly-founded Thammathipatai Party are competing for power behind the scenes in the event they both escape harsh sentences from the Constitution Tribunal. Abhisit looks upon himself as a compromise choice at a time when the country is bitterly divided. Chuan Leekpai served this role pretty well in the aftermath of the May 1992 tragedy when he led the Democrat Party to form a coalition government to heal the country's wounds.

Somkid now has the backing of the military in power and a political base from Somsak Thepsuthin, who broke away from the Thai Rak Thai to form the Matchima Party. Equally important, he has the populist policy, which he inherited from the Thai Rak Thai Party. Although Thai Rak Thai might perish, the spirit of its economic populism still prevails. The Thai people don't care much about the brand name. They love the handouts and the quick fixes. Somkid understands Thai vulnerabilities, whereas Abhisit still banks on support from the Thai elite. But at the end of the day, the next prime minister will be picked by the invisible hands of the military in power.

 Thanong Khanthong