The Nation's Political Desk explores the scenarios and analyses the political implications of the Constitution Tribunal's possible rulings.

Scenario 1:

Both parties are dissolved. All party executives get a fiveyear ban.

Although such a verdict would expel a number of unpopular and nasty politicians, it could have the worst prospects for the country.

The heavyweights and influ¬ential figures who have dominat¬ed Thai politics for decades would be kicked out for five years. All 118 TRT executives and another 49 from the Democrats would be barred from assuming political posts - MPs, senators and ministers included.

The list of "possible victims" includes Thaksin Shinawatra, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Apirak Kosayodhin, Somsak Thepsuthin, Somkid Chatusripitak, Suthep Thaugsuban, Newin Chidchob and Sudarat Keyuraphan.

Somsak's plan to found a new party led by his ally Somkid would be sunk.

In the meantime, it could revive veteran politicians like Chuan Leekpai, Banharn Silapaarcha and General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh for a comeback to rule the country.

The dissolution of both parties would give legitimacy to the junta's belief that key politicians were dishonest and had caused trouble.

Thus, military intervention to save the country from an ongoing crisis would be more legitimate and unavoidable.

Moreover, such a verdict would close the door on attempts to wreak revenge on the coup makers.

For, while they wanted a "safe landing" by joining a party with political heavyweights to win the next poll, and form a coalition government, it is very risky for them to trust former allies of Thaksin. Such people could switch sides if the balance of power shifted in favour of the former premier.

But without the two main par¬ties, democracy may be fragile if the public feels the country is starting to become a military state.

The Army would turn into the most powerful interest group and the system of checks and balances may erode under those circumstances.

As a result, antijunta and proThaksin groups may gain momentum to overturn military rule.

TRT may mobilise their sup¬porters to rally against an "unfair" ruling. And the Democrats and democratic activists could even join TRT protests if dark clouds loomed over their future.

Scenario 2:

Only Thai Rak Thai is dis¬banded, along with a fiveyear ban on its executives. The Democrats escape punish¬ment.

This verdict could cause unrest by Thai Rak Thai sup¬porters.

A TRT executive was recently accused of leaking "possibly true" verdicts that both parties would be guilty and disbanded.

The message was intended to warn Thai Rak Thai supporters who still have faith in deposed premier Thaksin that the party would be disbanded regardless of the legal process.

The supposed "leak" was like a bomb thrown at the junta and the Constitution Tribunal.

The underlying message is that a verdict that disbands only Thai Rak Thai would suggest to its supporters and the public that the judges had been swayed to change their mind at the last minute in favour of its oppo¬nents.

Furthermore, a ruling against Thai Rak Thai would suggest the Democrats were allies of the junta, and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - all Thaksin's bitter enemies.

This verdict could fuel antiCNS rallies led by People's TV, which have the potential to gain momentum.

The rallies recently turned into a proThaksin event with more supporters taking part every week. Indeed, most PTV executives are former senior TRT members.

If this ruling is made, the door for former TRT heavyweights Somsak and Somkid to form a new party would close as they would be hit with fiveyear bans.

And junta leaders may have to cancel any plan to enter politics democratically if Somsak is forced to take a long break.

Scenario 3:

Only Thai Rak Thai is dis¬banded. However, its execu¬tives escape the fiveyear ban. The Democrat Party is found innocent, and its executives are free to stay in politics.

This outcome would block Thaksin from making a return, as he was party leader during the April 2 poll and would be pres¬sured to take responsibility for the party's guilt.

However, supporters of Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin may stage rallies to call for "justice" for the party and expremier.

TRT executives would be free to join hands with junta leaders to form a new party, which would have a strong chance of winning the next election and forming government.

The junta would be able to shift to democratic rule. By being in the next administration, mili¬tary leaders would be able to protect themselves from any act of revenge by ousted premier Thaksin.

However, the outcome of such a joint force could be like a step back to the bad old days of semimilitary regimes. Junta leaders would have to compromise with influential politicians, whom they earlier ousted with charges of corruption.

Such a situation may sway public perception that the September coup was a farce, and that military only intervened to regain power they had lost in recent years.

It would be similar to the coup in 1991, when junta leader General Suchinda Kraprayoon assumed the premiership despite the junta having promised earlier to back an elected prime minis¬ter.

If the people feel they have been betrayed, rallies against military rule could grow stronger and this could lead to unrest.

Scenario 4:

Both parties are dissolved. However, all party executives escape a fiveyear ban.

Such a verdict might indicate that the Council for National Security (CNS), as the junta calls itself, plans to form a political party with heavyweights from Thai Rak Thai and possibly other parties.

This ruling would point out that Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats caused a serious crisis by acts linked to the controver¬sial election on April 2, 2006. They were greedy for power so ended up working against the country's best interests.

However, if all executives of both parties were banned for five years, the CNS would find it hard to deliver its plan.

Hence, they should be found innocent while the guilt could be pinned on "individuals", because the parties did not issue any resolutions to undertake illegal acts.

The CNS leaders hope to end their rule as national heroes, who return democracy to the people.

A national poll will surely take place. A party made up of junta leaders and TRT heavyweights - including factions which recently left TRT to form a new political group - could potentially win the next poll and form govern¬ment.

But the joint force and impli¬cations would be similar to Scenario 3, which could end in a people's uprising.

Scenario 5:

Only the Democrat Party is dissolved, and a fiveyear ban imposed on its executives. Thai Rak Thai is acquitted.

and Scenario 6:

Only the Democrat Party is dissolved but its executives escape the ban from politics. Thai Rak Thai is acquitted.

These two scenarios are least likely to happen on May 30. With the junta wanting to ruin Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin, any result that would let them free appears at odds in the current political context.

Scenario 7:

Both parties are found inno¬cent, and their executives escape any punishment.

On the political front, this verdict would possibly lead to reconciliation among groups in the ongoing conflict, at least for the near future.

Supporters of both parties could stay at home.

Political heavyweights would be free to focus on their cam¬paigns for the next poll rather than their survival. The PAD might cry foul over a verdict that lets TRT and Thaksin free. However, it has lost power and the possibility of a new round of protests is unlikely to cause trou¬ble.

However, such an outcome may cast doubt on the legal process.

If both parties are not found guilty, the Constitution Tribunal could suddenly be in the hot seat.

The judges would have to explain why they ruled the con¬troversial poll on April 2 last year as "untainted by fraud" - after His Majesty the King calling it the "worst crisis".

The Administrative Court, moreover, suspended byelec¬tions in southern constituencies. The Constitution Court soon fol¬lowed by cancelling the April 2 poll.

Three election commissioners at the time were later sent to jail for their abuse of power in overseeing the April 2 election.

This outcome would lead to controversy if it questioned the legitimacy of the anti-Thaksin protests and Sept 19 coup.

The Nation