The parties concerned, both here and abroad, have arrived at a situation of "perpetual stalemate". Their common objective now is to realise a general election by end December and install the newly elected government by January. Then, they hope, the country will enter a new era after a transitional period of nearly two years following the resignation of Thaksin Shinawatra last January. However, the post-election political scenario hinges a lot on the upcoming Constitution Tribunal rulings on the fate of the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties.

It is safe to say for now that all the coup rumours are simply rumours. Generally speaking, Thais are inclined to see political uncertainty as a precursor of coups or bloody clashes - things they have witnessed before. But these days the destinies of the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government are even more intertwined. The campaign to oust Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, which reached its peak two weeks ago, has fizzled out. Apart from his dismissive and politically insensitive style, nothing can be said against Surayud, who is poised to return to the Privy Council early next year. He still needs to prove that he remains an asset though, and has been working diligently to overcome his handicaps and ensure that certain democratic ground rules and principles are laid down in the remaining months of his term.

With all the brinkmanship, Surayud will be able to sustain his leadership until the end along with Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin, even though the junta chairman is due to retire as the Army chief in October. With the same leadership duo at the helm throughout, the overall political management and stability will make the transition period easier. Both men have shared the Tuesday Cabinet meetings in the past two months, which has improved their personal communication and rapport. Sonthi is on record as saying that his requests have never been turned down by the government.

From this perspective, the prospect of Sonthi retiring on schedule, as many expect, is negligible because of the prevailing political and security situation. The coup leader has reiterated that he has no intention to perpetuate his hold on power. Contrary to the perceptions of a public fed daily with stories of acrimonious relations and rivalry, Sonthi and Surayud in fact need and depend on each other more than ever. They are in the same boat - they either survive or sink together. Surayud will now accelerate his work, without the kind of pressure witnessed in the past six months. If need be, a three-month extension of Sonthi's term would get Surayud's endorsement. The CNS-government tensions have now given way to their common exigencies related to preparations for the upcoming election. One such necessity is to reassure foreign countries that Thailand's democratisation plan and political reforms are on track. Surayud is scheduled to meet Christopher Hill, US assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, at Government House tomorrow. Hill is the highest-ranking US official to call on Surayud, something which the US has avoided doing in the past. The Thai premier is expected to stress that there will be no further coups, and that a new, elected government will be functioning by early next year.

There remain major issues to be dealt with ahead of the election. One is the fate of the new charter. Later this week, the Constitutional Drafting Assembly (CDA) will deliberate on a final draft of the charter, which has been scrutinised, debated and amended over the past weeks. The CDA's decision whether to accept or reject the draft will have far-reaching implications for the future of Thai politics. Several issues remain unsettled, including the inclusion of Buddhism as a national religion, the fate of the proposed "national crisis council" and the status of senators, among others. If the CDA flunks the new draft, the planned national referendum on it will be aborted and the CNS will impose one of the country's previous charters, after making amendments it sees fit. Two immediate questions then arise: how the CNS and the government will deal with disappointed public expectations over the national referendum on a new charter, and whether the public will accept the charter chosen by the junta.

The other major issue is the fate of the country's two major political parties, the Democrats and Thai Rak Thai, both of which face the possibility of being disbanded due to alleged electoral fraud. Nobody really knows what the Constitutional Tribunal's rulings on their cases will be. Obviously, whatever the decision, it should not decapitate the ongoing political process and create further uncertainty. The prevailing public sentiment, shared by the CNS, is that to create a new political climate, political parties and their politicians must be reprimanded for all their wrongdoing - in nutshell, showing disdain for the democratic process. Thai democracy today is still young and party politics is still an important element. Whoever wins the election must be able to run the country and shore up support domestically and internationally. To do so, the country needs political parties with disciplined and workable structures - not more ad hoc party politics like before.

By the end of June, the Assets Examination Committee will complete investigations into key corruption cases that are likely to see Thaksin and his former Cabinet members formally charged and subsequently prosecuted in civil courts. As the AEC investigations wind down, Thaksin's political future, regardless of his restlessness and numerous activities overseas, looks rather bleak. He will definitely be deterred from returning to Thailand by the pending charges.

Hindsight is important in Thai politics. Sonthi and Surayud's military careers were confined to special operations forces. Following the coup, they have played politics like going to war with clear political objectives. After they step down, they too will want to avoid culpability for the results of their joint operation.

 Kavi Chongkittavorn