The worst-case scenario would be the dissolution of only one of the parties, particularly Thai Rak Thai, as this would increase political tension. Instead, Kanin would rather see both the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties dissolved - an outcome feared by most politicians in both parties.

His rationale against disbanding the parties is that the 1997 charter, of which he was one of the drafters, had no such an intent, except in the event that there was solid evidence against a party or parties of attempting to overthrow the country's democratic governance system.

In his opinion, neither Thai Rak Thai's nor the Democrats' alleged wrongdoings in the general election prior to the September 19 coup justify party dissolution.

Secondly, the alleged wrongdoings took place while the 1997 Constitution was still in effect. This charter was abrogated in the wake of the coup that ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, so the jurisprudence for these two political cases no longer exists.

Third, the predecessor of what became the Council for National Security (CNS), headed by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, issued a decree soon after staging the coup that leaders and executive members of disbanded political parties would be barred from taking up political posts for a period of five years.

As a result, it's not possible to just disband the parties but allow certain politicians to continue their political activities, especially standing for the next general election.

In the event that both the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties are disbanded, more than 100 executive members of both parties would be banned from politics. Fourth, the nine-member Constitution Tribunal, appointed by the CNS following the coup, should not risk their record of integrity in these politically explosive cases since the president and other key members of the tribunal are also concurrently the heads of the Supreme Court and Supreme Administrative Court, among other highly regarded institutions.

On the other hand, a no-dissolution verdict for both parties could set the stage for the start of genuine political healing in the country.

It could be the first time in almost a year that eroding confidence in Thailand's political stability is reversed. Those who still dislike Thaksin should be reassured that the ex-premier does not have the legitimacy to make a political comeback any time soon.

In addition, Thaksin and his family will likely face a series of criminal and other charges in court, so it would not be possible for him to return to politics in the near term.

More worrying at present is the surge in political opportunism, as more and more people in uniform prepare to enter politics themselves after ousting the Thaksin regime.

In a related development, Section 289 of the first draft of the new 2007 charter states that all members of powerful independent organisations appointed or re-appointed by the CNS following the coup will remain in office until their terms expire in the next 5-8 years.

These bodies include the Election Commission, the National Counter Corruption Commission, the Office of Ombudsmen (parliamentary commissioners), the National Human Rights Commission and the National Economic and Social Advisory Board.

Given this provision, suspicion abounds that the CNS members are in fact preparing to hold on to political power despite their pledge last September that they would make an exit after spending one year to fix the problems caused by the Thaksin regime.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

 nop1122@yahoo.com