If you talk to members of the Democrat Party, you get the impression that none of them believe that there is adequate justification for the Constitution Tribunal to dissolve Thailand's oldest party. They say that the charges against their party are not credible at all.

If you talk to Thai Rak Thai members, you get a quick answer that the final curtain will inevitably fall on their heads. Most members have already jumped ship to new parties. If you talk to members of the Council for National Security (CNS), you have to read between the lines, but eventually, you'll get the impression that the coup leaders - to be fair for everybody, as they would argue - would like both the Democrat and the Thai Rak Thai parties to be dissolved.

The political landscape will change dramatically if the country's two largest political parties are dissolved. You have to put yourself in the shoes of the coup leaders in order to understand their dilemma. The military strongmen will eventually have to cede power and allow the country to return to the path of democracy.

When that happens, the military leaders will have had to make three things certain. First, they must survive in the new Thai-style democratic order with a sort of protection from the new government that they back from behind the scenes. Second, they must get rid of Thaksin Shinawatra, who is their number one enemy, once and for all. Thaksin's return is out of the question. And third, just in case, they might continue to have their hands in the cookie jar.

The Thai Rak Thai Party will have to be dissolved for sure because the coup was staged to uproot the political influence of Thaksin in the first place. But why is there a need to dissolve the Democrat Party as well?

As we have witnessed throughout this episode, the Democrat Party has been up in arms against Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai. Thaksin is the enemy of the Democrat Party as much as he is the enemy of the CNS. In short, the Democrats and the CNS share a common enemy, who, with a huge amount of money in his war chest, is still waging a highly sophisticated war from the outside. So why don't the two get together to go after Thaksin?

Things do not work out so easily. The CNS does not trust the Democrat Party. They are not sure that they can control the Democrats if Abhisit Vejjajiva were elected prime minister in the next general election. The Democrats also do not have a tradition of cutting political deals with the military in power.

If the Democrat Party is destroyed, then the military may hope to properl either Somkid Jatusripitak of the Thammathipatai Party or Somsak Thepsuthin of the Matchima Party into power. Somkid and Somsak used to be Thaksin's top lieutenants. They have now broken away from the remnants of the Thai Rak Thai Party in order to chart out new political fortunes of their own.

The field of candidates for the position of the next prime minister of the Kingdom of Thailand remains wide open. Abhisit appears to have a strong chance if the Democrat Party escapes a harsh verdict. The public still has a perception that he is young and inexperienced or that he does not have a strong performance record. But he is the only legitimate choice that the Democrat Party has in its drawer. Many have discounted the chances of Chuan Leekpai making a comeback for a third term, however he was earlier seen as a possible dark horse.

Thaksin desperately wants to return to Thailand to reclaim his political power. If he were to be allowed to run in the election, he would certainly win. He and Abhisit are theoretically strong contenders for the premiership.

But you have to rule out any possibility of a Thaksin comeback.

Criminal charges are pending against him. Before the general election is held, the military leaders have to make sure 100 per cent that they have Thaksin on the hook.

If both the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai parties are dissolved, there will be a huge political vacuum in Thai politics. But then you'll witness Somkid emerging from the turmoil to become Thailand's prime minister via the backing of ex-Thai Rak Thai Party members and most importantly the military rulers.

If that were to be the case, the military rulers will be happy that they have finally completed their jigsaw puzzle in order to remain in power. But the big question is: can the military trust Somkid and Somsak, who have been strong allies of Thaksin from the outset, or can they be certain that Thaksin will not make a comeback to repay them in kind for all of the inconvenience they have caused him?

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation