Soldiers are acting suspiciously and keeping everyone guessing about their true intent in dispensing the power seized during the September coup.

In the latest political drama, a group seen as "pro-coup" has issued a demand for the junta to fire Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont.

This is not a regular daytime soap opera but a refined shadow play designed to dazzle the audience while, behind the scenes, the master tries to surreptitiously pull a political stunt.

The group, known as the Assembly of Isaan People, was relatively unknown before making its demand last week. However, many security officials are familiar with it, as an organised mass movement linked to the Internal Security Operation Command (ISOC).

The vast majority of its activists might be genuine crusaders who believe they are serving the public, but some have close ties to the authorities.

Before emerging from obscurity, the group named political veteran Chaiwat Sinsuwong as its leader, to lend weight to its actions. It is an open secret that Chaiwat is a military ally whose mentors include retired Maj General Chamlong Srimuang.

Under Chaiwat's leadership, the group has gained a credible voice. Someone did his homework before executing the group's make-over.

The next step in catapulting the group into the limelight was to arrange for junta leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin to personally acknowledge the demand.

Although Sonthi cried foul for being tricked into a meeting with Chaiwat, the damage had been done - the demand to replace Surayud is now in the open and an issue for further debate.

Many retired soldiers and civilian lawmakers seen as close to the People's Alliance for Democracy, which crusaded to oust the Thaksin regime, later became disillusioned with Surayud's leadership and joined the fray.

Sonthi has tried but failed to dispel doubts about his true stand on the demand. After all, he is concurrently the ISOC director - hence it is difficult for him to claim he was caught off-guard on the issue when he is keeping tabs on all mass activities.

Noisy comments about the pros and cons of Surayud's leadership will likely dominate the news for weeks to come. It is as if the mastermind of the demand has designed the whole episode so that the public toys with the idea of keeping Surayud or kicking him out.

The core issues of why Surayud might be removed and how power would shift in a post-Surayud situation seem to have been forgotten.

The demand to oust Surayud is based on a flimsy argument that the prime minister has failed to put his utmost effort into uprooting the Thaksin regime.

How can this be, when every state mechanism is hard at work to penalise Thaksin and his cohorts by due process?

Not many are paying attention to the likely power shift if Surayud is removed from his job.

If the group is sincere about its advocacy, then it hardly needs to take elaborate steps to boost its image.

Even though most senior generals in the junta and the armed forces are not linked to the group, they curiously allow the hype surrounding the demand to continue - against the very prime minister installed.

This is happening at a time when officers linked to the junta have been circulating the idea of promoting Sonthi as the next prime minister.

Military strategists are thinking about emulating the experience of General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council and former prime minister. The debate on Surayud's leadership has helped them to test the water about Sonthi's future.

To be fair to the military, there is no obvious plot for Sonthi to grab power, but many senior generals are seriously thinking about rallying behind him since it has become evident that Surayud will not stay on after the general election.

At this juncture, everything is uncertain. Sonthi appears reluctant to take the government helm but he has not completely ruled out the possibility.

He may not harbour any political ambitions but a persistent push by his subordinates might weaken his resolve.

Should the military manage to install Sonthi as prime minister before the general election, the burning question is whether the general election will be delayed.

If Sonthi rises to power after the elections, this will certainly lead to a greater involvement of the military in politics. Will this bode well for democracy?

Avudh Panananda

The Nation