In two weeks' time, one of the most important political events since the September coup will occur and shape the immediate future of Thailand. Virtually every eye will be focused on the Constitution Court on May 30 as it delivers its verdicts on whether the two most powerful parties, the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai, are guilty of electoral fraud.

At issue is whether the two should be dissolved if found guilty. For the court, as it assesses the evidence, there can be no room for error. It has to consider whether a conviction is in the best interests of a country, which has been battered by political instability and an economic slowdown.

Opinion has flowed from all directions about the likely outcome. On Friday, securities company UOB Kay Hian came out with some interesting research. While citing that it is difficult to predict the outcome, it was more than likely to be a compromise.

UOB Kay Hian says politics will continue to destabilise Thailand over the coming months. And that was probably why compromise could be expected from the court.

In the worst-case scenario in which both parties are considered guilty of electoral fraud and dissolved, it said this would lead to unrest as grassroots supporters of the two parties would not be likely to accept the verdict. Self-serving politicians would move in and stir them up, and before long there would be protests against the court's ruling, the government as well as the Council for National Security (CNS).

This outcome could very well lead to the failure of the national referendum on the new constitution in early September, and open up the possibility of another coup to counter unrest and the setting up of a military government.

"If the existing government is replaced by a military government, we will have the Bangkok elite joining demonstrations and causing bloodshed. We strongly believe this is the most unlikely scenario as it would plunge Thailand politically and economically into a deep hole," the securities company said.

Remarkably, the Stock Exchange of Thailand index plunged 7 points on Wednesday morning immediately after a rumour that Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont would be replaced to pave way for military control. The selling stopped after Surayud insisted later on in the day that he would not resign.

Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) executive Charl Kengchon said in an interview with UOB Kay Hian that he remained very concerned about the political situation and believed the national referendum on the new constitution would surely be shot down if the two political parties were to be dissolved by the Constitution Tribunal.

He said politicians might also boycott the next election if the country's two biggest political parties were dissolved. Therefore, a compromise was definitely the best answer for the country otherwise continued political instability could only ensure protracted policy uncertainty.

The most likely scenario as far as the securities company was concerned is for a compromise to be reached in which the parties are not dissolved. Instead, the guilty executives should face bans from politics for five years. In the case of Thai Rak Thai, there are two key executives, Thamarak Isarangura and Pongsak Ruktapongpisal, alleged to have been principal players in this messy business.

Prosecution evidence and defence rebuttals have suggested that not all of the party's executives were aware of any wrongdoing. The ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra had also made a "strong argument" distancing himself from the two executives.

As for the Democrat Party,

secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban appeared a possible culprit lined up for punishment as prosecution witnesses had all pointed fingers at him.

The reasons why UOB Kay Hian believed the second scenario had more potential were:

l Grass-roots supporters of the two big political parties would be appeased. Thus there would be no mass demonstrations.

l Party executives, if involved in electoral fraud, would be

punished, sending a "powerful message" that guilty politicians are not above the law.

l Party executives not involved in the case would not be punished by default, a further sign that the judiciary di not making rulings in favour of any groups, particularly the CNS.

l The government would

continue to function and could hold the general election at the end of the year.

l The CNS would exit politics as promised without having to plunge themselves deeper into problems relating to anti-coup demonstrations.

l Another coup, or possible bloodshed, would not be likely, and the promised general election would take place.

It would seem that many Thais hope for the second scenario, as the repercussions from the first could be harsh for an already fragile political and economic environment.