What was the reason for General Sonthi Boonyaratglin's willingness to welcome the Assembly of Isaan People at Army headquarters?

Sonthi, as the junta chief, on Tuesday accepted a letter from the group asking him to remove Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont from office. He also took group photographs with the members. It seemed that the visitors were in some kind of conspiracy with Sonthi.

Was the Army chief sending a signal to Surayud that his time as premier was running out? Or was Sonthi protecting him from political pressure?

The first theory says Sonthi may really want to sack Surayud on the grounds that he isn't satisfied with Surayud and the government's performance. Surayud has been criticised for not yet acting on the "four claims" of the Council for National Security for staging the coup.

But Sonthi might not want to be the one to dump his former superior or personally tell him to resign. So Sonthi could borrow the political activists' hand to bring Surayud down.

Sonthi, as the CNS chief, has the power to dismiss the prime minister, according to the interim constitution.

The other theory, which is quite optimistic, holds that Sonthi may harbour good intentions in helping Surayud to absorb pressure from the group by pretending to associate with it.

However, by welcoming the political activists, Sonthi might have killed two birds with one stone. On one hand, he could keep in touch with coup-friendly people's movements such as the Isaan assembly, which is an affiliate of the now dormant People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). He could at least calm them down.

The PAD is a force that could mobilise popular support for the junta. Who knows what the future holds? Sonthi, one day, might have to rely on them. For sure, the junta needs this people's movement to help push the constitution successfully through the referendum.

On the other hand, he could send the strongest message to his ex-boss Surayud that it's now time to act and perform.

It's hard to believe that Sonthi, despite his constitutional authority to ditch the prime minister, would change the government at this juncture. With only seven months to go before the next election, it's too late to change horses in midstream.

If Sonthi really kicks Surayud out, the important question would be: who would replace him?

Finding a replacement is not that easy given the political atmosphere. What Surayud is facing may scare others who would succeed him.

Even Surayud - who was broadly welcomed by the people as they were impressed with the former Army chief as a professional soldier - is facing mounting criticism and pressure after only seven months in office.

If no one else dares to take the heat, then it might be Sonthi's turn.

Could he really replace Surayud, as is widely speculated?

In the current politic climate, it won't be easy for a soldier to run the country. Sonthi must realise that Thailand is at a complex stage of development, which the military cannot cope with. Look at what Surayud is facing - the economy is heading downhill as confidence in the coup-led system wanes.

Serving as the top executive of the country is not a cushy job. As former prime minister Chuan Leekpai has said, Surayud was a good soldier when he was the Army chief but it's another story to be the prime minister. Sonthi, as a soldier, should know just which role he is best at.

If he really fills Surayud's shoes, it could be a political misstep as his opponents, notably deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, could label him as "power hungry".

History has a bad record for a coup leader who becomes prime minister. General Suchinda Kraprayoon's fate might remind Sonthi about his own future, Thaksin might say.

Plus, Sonthi, who is in charge of national security, is not that good even at his own security job. The violence in the restive South is getting even worse than before the September 19 coup. Bombs could rock the capital of Bangkok at any time. No culprit has been arrested and no one can prevent further attacks either.

A good soldier never goes back on his word. Sonthi will be regarded as a good soldier as long as he never changes his standpoint: "I insist I will never be the PM."

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation