The office, in the Industry Ministry, is considering revising downward its industrial GDP growth forecast from 5.5-6.5 per cent, according to director-general Atchaka Sibunruang Brimble.

Last year, the industrial GDP expanded 6.1 per cent.

Atchaka said that the manufacturing product index (MPI) in the first quarter increased 5.7 per cent year on year, below the target of 6.6 per cent.

In the first quarter, the MPI in the textile industry fell 11.54 per cent from the same period last year because of bad debt in many companies. The cement industry's MPI declined 10.3 per cent as a result of a slowdown in the property business. Moreover, the automotive MPI shrank 18.66 per cent year on year following reduced domestic sales.

However, the MPI of electronic parts rose 6.4 per cent, while steel's MPI expanded 8 per cent because of 16-per-cent growth in export sales in the first quarter.

Atchaka said her office had yet to decide how much the industrial GDP target would be cut, because it had to consider the Kingdom's export growth in the industrial sector, an increase of 17 per cent in the first quarter, and the impact from the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership Agreement (Jtepa).

"When Jtepa takes effect in October, we hope that it will boost the industrial GDP before the end of the year," she said.

Meanwhile, a survey by the office showed that more than 90 per cent of industrial operators in Bangkok and surrounding provinces barely understand the impact from Jtepa.

Somchai Harnhirun, director of the Industrial Economics Information Centre, said it was quite surprising that most second-tier auto-makers did not know details of the agreement at all.

"They believe they are not affected by this pact because most companies are already subsidiaries of Japanese firms," he said.

The office will present the survey results to the Commerce Ministry and other involved agencies, so that they can arrange training sessions for local operators as soon as possible.

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul

The Nation