The pre-election manoeuvrings of the former ruling parties, Thai Rak Thai and Democrat, were not bad enough for them to be dissolved, law experts said yesterday ahead of the May 30 verdict and sentencing by the Constitution Tribunal.

"According to the Political Party Act, the cause for party dissolution is conduct to topple democracy with a constitutional monarchy. In my opinion, it could only be staging a coup or mobilising people for a political revolution. What both parties did was none of these," said Kanin Boonsuwan, a drafter of the now defunct 1997 constitution.

Kanin said dissolving both parties would hit Thai politics hard because they are large, especially the 61-year-old Democrat Party.

Foreign countries would also question the political system here. While the country has been stressing the pre-eminence of political parties, it was preparing to close down its two major ones.

However, if Thai Rak Thai was relegated to the dustbin while the Democrats got a new lease on life, political tensions would rise dramatically. It would be seen as a direct confrontation between the coup makers, who call themselves the Council for National Security (CNS), and the old ruling power, the Thai Rak Thai.

"I'm not sure but maybe Thaksin [Shinawatra, Thai Rak Thai's founder] wants the tribunal to rule for dissolution as it could make his supporters [agitate] more," he said.

"The announcement of the Council for Democratic Reform, now the Council for National Security [which increased the penalties for executives of dissolved parties to include a five-year suspension of their voting rights] could be problematic for the tribunal," he said. "It would make it look like the CNS wanted to eradicate Thai Rak Thai."

If the party is dissolved, its supporters could question the judgement's legitimacy, he said.

A ruling in favour of both parties would generate a good political atmosphere and reinforce the policy of reconciliation, he said.

Sukhum Nualsakul, a former rector of Ramkhamhaeng University, said the key men accused of undermining democracy were not the majority of the party executives but only a few of them.

Sukhum, however, said the dissolution ruling would not shake up Thai politics. It would only be about the interests of political groups.

"If the tribunal calls for the dissolution of both parties, I think the impact will come from abroad more than in the country. Foreign countries might see Thai politics as very bad as two major parties that used to run the country are disbanded. The country's credibility will deteriorate in foreign eyes," he said.

Even if its executives had really hired small parties to run in the election, the crime wouldn't justify winding down the whole party, as it would have only violated the Political Party Act. In the worst case, the Con-stitution Tribunal could only find the executives guilty and then ban them from holding executive positions over the designated time, he said.

Thai Rak Thai acting leader Chaturon Chaisang said the party's 14 million card-carrying members would have to suffer for the personal behaviour of just a few people, or the party's executives.

Both parties attacked the Election Commission (EC) for improper investigation. Thai Rak Thai said the EC did not inform the party about the charges and let it clarify itself. And only the EC chairman passed the case to the Attorney-General, without the resolution of all the EC members.

Likewise, the Democrats said when its leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban testified as witnesses against Thai Rak Thai, they did not know their party would also be accused of election fraud.

However, the Democrats accepted the Council for Democratic Reform's announcements as the law. It also agreed to the increased penalties for executives of dissolved parties.

Democrat deputy secretary-general Thaworn Senneam, part of the defence team, said he was confident his party was innocent while Thai Rak Thai was guilty.

However, if both parties lose their cases, new, young politicians would have the chance to play a role in Thai politics.

"It's not a big deal for the country, only fewer than 200 politicians are banned from politics. Thailand doesn't lack capable people," he said.

Ackaratorn Chularat, vice president of the Constitution Tribunal, said the justices will consider all the circumstances and information they have received, and weigh the evidence and testimonies. Something that might have emerged during the hearings might not lead to a decision as seen from the outside, he said.

Kornchanok Raksaseri,

Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation