This year's Songkran celebrations will be a much-needed respite from the soaring mercury due to climate change and the heated-up political situation.

Water-splashing festivities could help cool off the flaring tensions on both sides.

Right after the holiday break, Thailand will have to brace for three events marking the trials and tribulations of repairing the flawed political system.

These are: the release of the draft constitution for public scrutiny, the government's mid-term report on its performance and the three-sided, interlocking relationship of the government, junta and ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

By next week, the debate on the first draft of the new constitution is expected to commence. If the country is to usher in an improved political system, voters in the upcoming referendum should be allowed to make an informed judgement on the draft.

Any attempts to try to whip up a frenzy - either to accept or reject the draft - would be counter-productive and may delay the restoration of democratic rule.

Opponents of the drafting process - an odd mix of anti-coup activists and Thaksin's supporters - ought to offer critiques of draft provisions instead of making an outright emotional rejection.

But worrying news is that many villagers say they have been encouraged by certain Thaksin supporters to reject the new constitution - in a show of loyalty to the ousted premier.

The country's highest law enshrines the people's aspirations and should not be reduced to a tool to settle a vendetta.

Proponents of the draft share equal responsibility in regard to misleading the public. They have focused on inciting paranoia over possible consequences that might arise if the draft is rejected, instead of spelling out what they have done to improve the political landscape.

Social divisions will worsen if rival sides refuse to accept the new rules for politics.

Opponents and proponents of the new constitution still have time to reason with one another and make necessary adjustments before the final draft comes out in July.

Rival sides have no justification to sway the outcome of the referendum based on the first draft.

Around the same time that the first draft is released, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont is expected to deliver his mid-term report to the National Legislative Assembly.

Government House sources say Surayud plans to use his report to rally the nation and shore up public confidence.

Whether Surayud will be successful in boosting his popularity is of lesser concern than a persistent rumour that anti-Thaksin campaigners want him replaced by a more decisive leader willing to completely uproot the Thaksin legacy.

Political volatility is increasing as Surayud is treading carefully between anti- and pro-Thaksin factions. In leading the country back to a democratic path, he has to keep on top of a delicate situation in which seems to be fighting both friends and foes.

As the prime minister gears to boost his standing, PM's Office Minister Thirapat Serirangsan was quoted by lawmaker Samran Rodphet as saying that Surayud "might quit next month".

Thirapat and Samran rose to prominence from the anti-Thaksin campaign.

Even though the two have tried to tailor their comments to appear well-intentioned to encourage Surayud to stay on, the question remains why they have cast doubt on the prime minister.

The power struggle among the government, the junta and Thaksin has exacerbated political uncertainties.

The September coup should have meant that Thaksin was cut out of the political equation, but the reality is his supporters are actively trying to undermine the junta and revive his leadership.

The military-installed government is clear in trying to restore democratic rule but its achievements are being curiously undermined by rumours traced back to the military.

The junta argues passionately about its good intentions to improve on the political system yet rumours persist the coup-makers might strive for a firmer grip on power.

Given such scenarios, a lot of cold water is needed to put out the fires of vengeful politics.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation