Yesterday's announcement of the mid-year military rotations was a watershed event in the line of succession - for those who will take power when Army chief and junta leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin retires in September.

The armed forces reshuffle will take effect on April 1.

The new line-up of 456 officers shows two important trends: the rise of the Pre-Cadet Class 9 clique as the dominating force in the Army, and Sonthi's rearguard tactic to leave trusted aides as vanguards for the future.

Sonthi may be uncertain on what the future holds for him after the next general election but at least he has the loyalty of his top brass to catapult him into power - or ensure a golden retirement.

Under Sonthi's intervention, Lt General Sujit Sithiprapa is set to become commander of the Second Army Region, while Maj General Sunai Sampattawanit will take charge of the Special Warfare Command.

Sujit is an inner-circle aide of the junta leader and seen as close to the Class 9 clique, although he is a Class 8 graduate. His appointment comes at a crucial juncture, as the Northeast is slated to be a decisive battleground for the next coalition government.

Sunai is from Pre-Cadet Class 11 and known for his staunch loyalty to Sonthi as the two share the kindred spirit of the Special Warfare Corps. Sonthi's choice of Sunai is seen as his trump card to safeguard his future.

With the promotion of Maj General Jittipong Suwanseth as commander of the Anti Aircraft Artillery Command, the Pre-Cadet Class 9 clique now has complete control over all the major combat forces.

Army Chief of Staff General Montri Sangkhasap is the de facto leader of the clique and his influence in naming Sonthi's successor is expected to increase along with the clout of his fellow officers.

In contrast to the ascent of Montri's clique, Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers are now seen as quickly moving into obscurity because of their past ties with ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Class 10 officers like General Pornchai Kranlert and Air Chief Marshal Sukamphol Suwanthat have been moved twice in six months from key positions to lesser jobs and inactive assignments.

Pornchai has descended from assistant Army chief to deputy joint chief of staff to be a special adviser in the Defence Ministry.

Sukamphol will also become a "senior expert" - a fall from his heyday when he looked to be the heir apparent at the Air Force.

Lt General Chatchai Thawornbutr, Thaksin's former military aide, will lose his coveted position as deputy Army chief of staff and move to an inactive post in the Defence Ministry.

But the Class 10 graduates are far from being in the dustbin of history.

Assistant Army chief General Anupong Paochinda remains a top contender to succeed Sonthi and Lt General Sanit Phrommas is slated for reassignment. He will be elevated to a four-star general.

Sanit, the former commander of the Second Cavalry Division, was promoted upstairs following the September 19 coup.

Amid the horse trading among the top brass, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont managed to promote his military aide Lt General Ninnart Beaokaimook to a four-star general.

Ninnart will continue to serve in Government House although his new position is the Army's senior expert.

Key rotations include the promotion of outgoing Second Army Region commander Lt General Sujet Watanasuk to a four-star general in the Defence Ministry. Sujet is due to retire in September.

Lt General Woradej Phumijitr, Sonthi's fellow graduate from Pre-Cadet Class 6, will be promoted as chief staff officer for the Army chief, a four-star position.

The Political Desk

The Nation