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Thai Vegetable Oil

Tisco Securities has maintained its "buy" recommendation for Thai Vegetable Oil shares, with a 12-month target price of Bt9.70 apiece.
Production cutbacks by livestock breeders are starting to affect domestic demand for animal feed. Hence, local prices for crushed soy-bean meal (Thai Vegetable Oil's main source of revenues) are not keeping up with the higher prices for imported soy-bean meal from the US.However, this should not affect the company's first-quarter earnings, because it had a sufficient supply of low-cost raw materials for January and February. Soy-bean meal prices in the US increased 5.3 per cent month on month in January and 9.9 per cent in February. Although local prices for crushed soy-bean meal went up 6.5 per cent month on month in January, the increase for February was only 1.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the price of imported soy-bean meal in the domestic market rose only 2.4 per cent month on month in January, followed by an increase of 2.8 per cent in February. The reduction in the domestic livestock supply will probably dampen demand for animal feed this year. However, the company has a sufficient supply of low-cost raw material to cope with this situation in the first two months. But from March onwards, its raw-material costs are likely to rise. The brokerage has already anticipated this event, which is why it stands by its net-profit forecasts for this year and next at Bt585 million and Bt689 million, respectively. The broker expects Thai Vegetable Oil to announce an interim dividend of 40 satang a share, which would mean a dividend yield of 7.8 per cent for all of last year.
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