Oil prices will fluctuate for the rest of the month, due to tensions between the US and Iran and the 15-day closure of Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC), in turn leading to the import

of 90 million litres of petrol during the period, says the Energy Policy and Planning Office (Eppo).

Eppo director-general Viraphol Jirapraditkul said Dubai crude-oil prices could move between US$55 and $60 (Bt1,920 and Bt2,095) a barrel, finished petrol in Singapore between $68 and $75 and diesel between $63 and $70.

"Geographical tensions force many countries to stock up oil reserves for the travelling

season, while refineries in Asia produce more naphtha than refined oil in a bid for higher returns.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has forecast that global oil demand in the first quarter will rise 2.7 per cent year on year," said Viraphol, explaining why retail oil prices would fluctuate accordingly.

The Energy Business Department also said SPRC's closure for annual maintenance from March 6-20 would force the refinery to import 80 million litres of octane-91 petrol and 6.8 million litres of octane-95 this month.

The department also revealed that in January and February, crude-oil imports rose 6.78 per cent year on year to 835,000 barrels a day, from 782,000 barrels before.

Retail oil prices have been jacked up four times this month.

Bangchak Petroleum president Anusorn Sangnimnuan said oil prices should not be adjusted this week, because retailers' marketing fee was staying at a reasonable level of Bt1.20 to Bt1.30 per litre.

"Petrol demand will rise, however, when summer hits all parts of the world, and

this should put short-term pressure on petrol prices," he said, adding that he was optimistic long-term pressure would be minimal as petroleum exporting countries have maintained their outputs.

As petrol prices have escalated, gasohol consumption has also risen, due to the lower contribution to the Oil Fund, says Eppo.

In January and February, gasohol consumption rose 5.4 per cent year on year to 3.6 million litres a day, accounting for 18 per cent of total petrol consumption.

As a result, octane-95 petrol consumption during the first two months dropped 24.7 per cent year on year to 3.4 million litres daily. Octane-91 petrol consumption, however, rose 12.3 per cent year on year to 13 million litres a day, because some octane-95 consumers switched to the lower-grade fuel.

Viraphol of Eppo noted that this month, the cooking-gas price has experienced a continued decline to $506 per tonne and is expected to be $500 to $510 a tonne next month.

The cooking-gas price is expected to fall below the $500 level mid-year, which could be the right time for the Energy Ministry to consider lifting the price subsidy.

At present, the cooking-gas price subsidy from the Oil Fund is Bt1.72 to Bt1.74 per kilogram.

Eppo also predicted Thailand's peak energy consumption this year would be 7 per cent higher than last year's.

The peak level should be 22,567 megawatts, which should be registered some time between now and May, as temperatures will be higher than last year.

Every 1-degree Celsius increase in temperature will raise power demand 200-300MW.