STOCK FOCUS
Bank of Ayudhya

SCB Securities has reiterated its "buy" recommendation for Bank of Ayudhya shares, with a target price of Bt25.20 apiece.
Bank of Ayudhya's (BAY) aggressive 15-16 per cent preliminary loan-growth target for this year led the broker to raise its compounded annual growth rate loan-growth forecast for 2007-11 to 14 per cent, from 13 per cent before.Bottom-up loan growth of 15 per cent this year will consist of 11-per-cent loan growth at the bank plus a Bt25-billion expansion of hire-purchase loans at wholly owned Ayudhya Capital Lease, which was established as the bank's hire-purchase arm in January. The bank's 11-per-cent loan growth is divided into 8 per cent for corporate and small and medium-sized enterprises and 25 per cent for retail (personal loans and mortgages). Targets under its new business plan incorporate much more aggressive and rapid growth for both personal and hire-purchase loans than the broker and consensus expected. Despite downward pressure from a downturn in interest rates, the broker expects the net-interest margin to surge 4 basis points this year, compared with a 5-basis-point drop for the sector, followed by a 29-basis-point rise next year when fully materialising. GE top management - the CEO, chief financial officer, head of retail banking and head of risk management - will undoubtedly change Bank of Ayudhya's operations and strategies. With a well-capitalised 17-per-cent capital-adequacy ratio after a cash injection of Bt27.4 billion (Bt22 billion by GE and Bt5.4 billion by warrant conversion by major shareholders) in January, Bank of Ayudhya now has a mind-set for inorganic growth as a shortcut to asset growth and return on equity enhancement. The broker can see BankThai, TMB Bank and Siam City Bank as other takeover targets.
|