On the political front, the Thai people are concerned about growing instability. Although Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted prime minister, has been living in exile, the political divide inside the country remains deep and bitter. Whoever comes to power will likely treat opponents as enemies. National disunity will hurt Thailand for the foreseeable future.

Will Thaksin return to Thailand? What will happen if he does make a comeback? So far the corruption cases against Thaksin and his former associates have been moving slowly, although the Asset Examination Committee hopes to conclude them at the end of April. But corruption cases in Thailand are notoriously difficult to prove. Most politicians get off the hook at the end of the due process of the law.

The Council for National Security has promised a timetable to return to democracy. Next month, we should have a draft of a new constitution, after which there will be a public hearing and a debate. By July, the National Legislative Assembly will vote on the new constitution. In November, an election will be held. By January 2008, Thailand will have an elected prime minister. The following month, the new prime minister should be able to form his Cabinet. But between now and the election, it looks like a very long, treacherous road indeed. Anything can happen, as former government sympathisers are ready to strike back to defend their interests. We are not sure whether the government can contain the violence in the South, which might spread beyond control and hurt the country as a whole.

On the economic front, businessmen, entrepreneurs and investors have given the Surayud government a big thumbs down. The economy is getting weaker. Consumer confidence has hit a new low. Investors and industrialists have not made any new investments at all, feeling uncertain about future prospects. Without fresh investment, Thailand is destined to face a very tough 2007. Already, companies are cutting costs steeply. We will see lay-offs this year with many companies and factories not being able to survive the downturn. The baht has continued its upward trend due to the dollar's weakness. Many exporters have threatened to fold their businesses if the baht rises further to Bt32-Bt33 against the dollar. This is a serious problem that the Surayud government can't overlook.

Strangely enough, it seems that the Surayud government doesn't feel the pressure from the economic downturn as it flip-flops on one policy after another. It should have admitted that we were going to face a tough year, then businesses could have made adjustments. It could have worked on fiscal stimuli to help prop up the economy. The government must finally cut interest rates to revive confidence and support consumption and investment.

The messages that come out of the Surayud administration are very murky. People are not sure what priorities it is undertaking. It has failed to stem the violence in the Deep South. It has mishandled the economy. It has not regained the trust of the rural population, who supported the previous regime. It has not bridged the political divide to create national reconciliation. It has not given enough hope that once it leaves the scene, Thailand will enjoy stability again.

There is very little time left for the Surayud government. It will urgently need to show competence and stay on top of the problems. It will need to make tough decisions. And it will need to produce results. The people's hopes are waning. The government no longer enjoys the luxury of time and support. It is now a do-or-die situation.