Even with the uncertainties clouding the property market, speculators today are still hoarding land with expectations of profiting from their punts when prices rise because of new mass-transit links.

Last month, the Cabinet approved a plan to build six subway routes that form part of the four main mass-transit lines. In all, they cover 131 kilometres and will be built for about Bt165 billion.

The first route to invite bidding will be the 15-kilometre Red Line (Bang Sue-Taling Chan) line. The process is expected to begin next month.

The other routes are less immediate, with some to start in 18 months.

For many developers, however, these lines offer an opportunity to capitalise on the new routes. But as with all punts, there remain risks, not to mention the massive supply of housing that is already weighing on the market today.

Punters believe that like the BTS Skytrain that boosted land prices in the areas it covered, the new routes will do the same for new areas, forgetting that a property correction may be around the corner.

"Sites within 500 metres of a BTS or subway station hold potential," said one punter. He favours housing projects near Suvarnabhumi Airport, although many residents there are trying to move out to escape the noise, pollution and environmental degradation.

The stretch along the Sathorn-to-Petchakasem BTS extension in Thon Buri should also thrive, said another punter.

The current Onnuj-Baring BTS Skytrain extension, which is causing daily traffic jams along Sukhumvit Road, is expected to benefit speculators who had purchased real estate in the eastern part of the capital.

But the route covers a large working-class area which, historically, few middle-class families favour except if they work near the factory zone.

Areas along the Suvarnabhumi-Makkasan-Phayathai (Airport Link) zone may form another potential growth area. Again, the area serves a big working-class population and has clusters of slum villages, which may prove harder to dislodge than the punters believe.

Speculators are more spread out today and their rate of success is slowed down by risks of swift downturns that come without warning. Those slow to dump are often caught holding vast tracts of that are hard to sell in places such as Suwintawong and Lamluka. Although punters who can hold out long enough should see some upside, some unlucky punters have to wait as long as 12-15 years to break even.

Meanwhile at Rama III Road, some players are hoping that after a decade this highly speculated stretch could again find favour.

Without a mass-transit link, however, the likelihood of another wave of speculative buying here seems obscure. For end-users, however, the lack of frenzied activity and overbuilding is not exactly a bad thing.

Though it is near the city

centre, Rama III is still considered a bit too removed from the bustle of Silom, which is rapidly losing its shine as a prime location.

Patpong Road, which a decade ago boasted one of the highest rentals in the city, is today worth much less as operators move out and demand for space falls due to overcrowding by vendors and heavy traffic jams.

Like Chinatown, this part of town is slowly fading, while new areas are sprouting up and prospering.

One zone that has seen heavy development recently is along Ratchadaphisek and Lat Phrao roads. CID Development is planning a large high-rise condominium with about 1,000 units in mid-Lat Phrao.

In nearby Rajayothin, Metro Star is developing four 24-storey towers on a 14-rai plot to house 1,500 apartments.

Prueksa Real Estate will build two mid-income condo projects along Ratchadaphisek and Lat Phrao this year. The projects will have units from Bt1.4 million.

Itthi C Tan

The Nation