After months of speculation, PM Surayud announced recently that Malaysia would be asked to facilitate talks with separatist organisations.

Terms and details were not disclosed but Thai and Malaysian sources said leaders of the separatist groups are expected to take part in the talks. Surayud's announcement was a surprise considering the fact that Defence Minister Boonrawd Somthas had in the past downplayed the idea of talking with these leaders because he doesn't think they have the clout to influence the new generation of militants behind the daily attacks on the ground.

To make the situation even more confusing, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying it was not aware of any plan to request that Kuala Lumpur help facilitate the dialogue. But the confusion has been put to rest following Surayud's statement two days after his meeting with his Malaysian counterpart, Abdullah Badawi. The coming weeks and months will see the formation of an official dialogue committee. A number of difficult choices over the course of action and strategy will be debated fiercely as respective agencies come together to map out a grand plan that may or may not produce a desirable outcome.

Some in Thailand say it is a long shot but the idea is to get the old guard to talk sense to the new generation of militants that emerged about four years ago. Known locally as juwae, or "fighter" in the local Malay dialect, these militants have succeeded in establishing a network of cells through out the South to coordinate attacks and carry out roadside bombings, not to mention the killings of suspected informants. More than 2,000 people, mostly local Muslims, have been killed in the region since January 2004.

Opponents see the idea of talking to the old guard as a zero-sum game. Besides not believing that these ageing leaders can influence the militants on the ground, some officials think talking to them would give the separatist groups too much political capital. Supporters of the dialogue, on the other hand, say there is nothing to lose and that the process would die a natural death anyway if nothing constructive come out of it.

What concerns both sides is how to explain to the public that this dialogue is not a cure-all solution. They are worried that public expectations will be too high, if and when the talks get off the ground. The official dialogue committee will be hard-pressed to show progress. The militants have not reciprocated these goodwill gestures from the government and have instead chosen to step up their attacks.

For Thailand, the idea of talking to separatists is almost unprecedented. Even at the height of the insurgency in the 1980s, Thai officials never extended any kind of courtesy to the armed Malay separatist groups. By offering to facilitate the talks, Kuala Lumpur has effectively stuck its neck out. While there were meetings between Thai officials and separatist leaders in the past, they were held in remote locations away from the public eye. Worse, the outcomes never had any real recommendations or impact on policy change. The Thai representatives were mid-ranking army officials who didn't have much of a mandate to negotiate any deal in the first place. Information and data collected form the meetings usually never made it past the desks of their bosses who had sent them.

In recent interviews with The Nation, exiled leaders of the rebel groups said there is a need for Bangkok to designate an identifiable official dialogue committee. This is to ensure continuity and accountability. Too often Thai officials contradict one another when it comes to sensitive matters. Given the lack of communication and the conflicting statements of recent weeks, the process will not be smooth sailing. But a clumsy start is better than no start at all.

Don Pathan

The Nation