Thailand is already behind the rest of the world in preparation and it could be caught napping unless it takes immediate action, Disease Control Department senior official Dr Supamit Chunsuttiwat said.

As many as 26 million people in Thailand could be sickened by the flu and more than a quarter of a million could die, he said.

To mitigate the effects of a pandemic, government agencies and the private sector must be ready and aware of their responsibilities in the event a pandemic strikes.

"To be honest, right now only the government - actually, to be precise, only the Public Health Ministry - is ready to any degree for a pandemic," he said. Singapore, Korea and the United States and European-Union nations have been holding national exercises. Thailand has held only ministerial-level and provincial health-office exercises, Supamit explained.

A ministerial pandemic-preparedness exercise is planned for next month

There are no plans for a national-level exercise, Medical Services Department chief Chatri Banchuin said.

But what can be done is to ensure hospitals are ready to deal with a flood of patients struck by the flu and other sectors pushed to make preparations, he said.

"In this regard, Bangkok is of particular concern. It's too complicated to manage a pandemic in Bangkok, Chatri said.

The ministry was talking with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administra-tion.

Because of its dense population the capital needs to be divided and a pandemic managed by parts, Chatri explained. Bird flu is expected to spread to Australia and North and South America given its current pattern. The avian virus is present in about half of all countries and is being carried by migratory birds, Supamit said.

"If it occurs soon we can mitigate the impact of a pandemic with good preparedness. But, if it does not happen soon, or is not that virulent, preparations will not have been a waste because we will be ready to deal with other emerging diseases, too," he said.

Arthit Khwankhom

The Nation