The brokerage has revised upward its 2006 net profit forecast for PTT by 3 per cent to Bt99.6 billion, indicating year-on-year growth of 16 per cent.

Although earnings from PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) - in which PTT has a 63-per-cent stake - and the refinery group will decline due to higher write-offs for dry wells and weaker gross refinery margin (GRM), ongoing growth in the gas business, extra gains from the sale of BPE and PTTEP stakes to PTT Chemical and a huge foreign-exchange gain will support fourth-quarter earnings.

The brokerage expects fourth-quarter net profit to fall 18 per cent quarter on quarter, but rise 16 per cent year on year to Bt19.9 billion.

It has downgraded its 2007 normalised earnings forecast for PTT by 11 per cent to Bt79.6 billion, due to a changed baht assumption to Bt36 per dollar, a lower GRM assumption from US$6.50 (Bt2,325) per barrel to $5.50, and a revised earnings expectation from an affiliate.

With no large extra gains this year, the brokerage expects PTT's 2007 net profit to drop 20 per cent to Bt79.6 billion. PTT is expected to pay a second-half dividend of Bt5 per share, bringing full-year 2006 dividends to Bt10 - a 4.8-per-cent yield.

Following complaints about pollution at the Map Ta Phut industrial estate, where most PTT group firms are located, company management said all group members' emissions were below the maximums for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.

The company therefore expects the current concerns about the estate to have no impact on existing plants.