Marcel Fenez, Pricewaterhouse-Coopers' Asia-Pacific leader for entertainment and media practice, said that after its "dark years of decline", growth was expected to return to the global music industry from now to 2010. That growth will be driven by digital distribution and the mobile-phone market, while physical distribution formats will decline.

Speaking at the seminar "The Turning Point: Trends in the Global and Thai Music Industries", held by GMM Grammy at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre last week, Fenez said the music industry lost huge amounts from 2001-03 to piracy and unlicensed downloads.

Over the past three years, there have been "signs of light", and from now to 2010 PricewaterhouseCoopers expects the industry to record worldwide growth of 5.2 per cent annually, as well as 6.6 per cent in the Asia-Pacific, he said.

Digital distribution is being driven by the rising number of broadband subscribers, the launch of new services and devices, increased availability of content and attractive pricing.

The global professional-services firm believes that by 2010, the digital distribution of music in Asia-Pacific will grow to a value of US$1 billion (Bt35.825 billion), from the present level of only $30 million. Mobile phones will remain the dominant channel for music distribution, with growth of 22.8 per cent a year, while physical distribution will fall 4.7 per cent annually.

Fenez said more people were expected to begin downloading music from their mobile phones. In 2005, 10 per cent of mobile-phone subscribers downloaded music, but by 2010 that proportion will rise to 17 per cent. For Thailand, mobile phones will remain the music industry's big opportunity in both the short and medium term.

He said online distribution would grow from a low base but might underperform in the Asia-Pacific, because of the region's lower broadband usage.

Ardkij Sunthornwat, True's general manager for multimedia services, said the biggest opportunity for the music industry over the next three to five years would come from mobile-phone users aged 30-50. This group is currently untapped, and the industry should concentrate on tapping it instead of being drawn away by new technologies or new-generation consumers.

"Up to now, only 25-30 per cent of mobile-phone users have downloaded music," he said. "The remaining 75 per cent have never tried a download."

Ardkij said the many obstacles to online distribution included the "proven fact" that Thais were scared off by using credit cards online and a dearth of licensed windows allowing music purchases via websites based on Digital Rights Management.

Pichaya Changsorn

The Nation