He hoped to take advantage of the political turmoil and the sinking popularity of both the Surayud government and the Council for National Security (CNS) to sneak into the country. A retired general would meet him at Chiang Mai Airport with other supporters to provide security. Yet, at the last minute, Thaksin cancelled the flight. He was not sure that he would be safe.

Indeed, nobody could guarantee the ousted prime minister's security. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Army chief, would have been prepared to issue an order for Thaksin to be arrested upon his return. General Sonthi would have issued the arrest warrant for Thaksin before filing charges against him. He has warned Thaksin all along that it would not be appropriate for him to return to Thailand until a new government has been formed.

Another crisis passed by without incident. But the CNS's generals and the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont were in disarray. They were paying the price for having failed to get tough on Thaksin and the remnants of his regime. The Assets Examination Committee (AEC) and the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) should have wrapped their investigations into the previous government's corruption scandals by December. But things have been moving very slowly.

After reluctantly staging the September 19 coup, the military leaders realised that they had to protect themselves after the interim government's term came to an end. The life of coup leaders, once they have lost their power, is very uncertain as history has shown. They could receive payback.

That was why the coup leaders decided not to freeze the assets of Thaksin and his political cronies. Instead, they set up a system to deal with the assets and the allegations of corruption during the previous regime by forming the AEC and breathing life into the NCCC. These agencies would deal with the corruption scandals and take the burden away from the Surayud Cabinet and the CNS. Then they could concentrate on ensuring political and economic stability as well as national security before ceding power back to a democratic system once again.

But it did not turn out as rosy as they had hoped. Thaksin and the remnants of his regime have not given the military leaders an easy ride. Thaksin can still hurl attacks against the government from abroad with his shrewd political moves. His supporters can still stir up political undercurrents to undermine the credibility of the military leaders and Surayud.

Thaksin will fight back even harder as he still needs to protect his assets in Thailand, which are worth around Bt100 billion. He wants to know if anybody dares to take his money.

In the meantime, civil servants were not cooperating with the Surayud government, in order to keep the country moving. This prompted General Saprang Kalayanamit, the assistant Army chief, to warn bureaucrats not to stay in "neutral gear" otherwise they could be punished. But civil servants are seasoned campaigners. They understand darn well that this government might not last long. So, why should they risk doing things that might backfire on them later on?

The fate of tax officials at the Revenue Department, who lost their jobs due to allegations that they facilitated tax avoidance by the Shinawatra family, served as a good reminder of how a blunder could be fatal. As a result, the bureaucratic machine was idle, staying mostly in neutral.

To make matters worse, the Surayud government blundered badly with its decision in late December to impose capital controls to curb the surging baht. This scared off foreign investors. Less than a month later, the Surayud government approved an amended version of the Foreign Business Law, which was poorly communicated and added to the negative sentiment towards Thailand as a whole. All of this gave the impression that Thailand was turning its back on foreign investment and that the Surayud government was not competent to run the country.

The public started to raise doubts. Did this Cabinet of old people know what it was doing? Almost four months after the coup it had accomplished almost nothing. The corruption cases were not moving anywhere. Then the bombs went off in Bangkok.

Investor and consumer sentiment was dampened. The economy may be at risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown if the political crisis is allowed to continue.

Indeed, Surayud had felt at one point that he would like to step down. The pressure had been overwhelming, coming from all directions to squeeze him like a mashed potato. There were dark forces, invisible hands and other vested interest groups ready to claim their share of lost opportunities.

But how could he return to the Privy Council as a failure? He had no choice but to keep on running the show, albeit in a rather disengaged manner.

One can sense that after the New Year's Eve bombs, the military rulers have changed their stance and decided to get tougher on Thaksin and the remnants of his regime. The AEC and the NCCC have started off with Thaksin, his wife Pojaman, his two children Panthongtae and Pinthongta, and brother in law Bhanapot. And now, investigations have widened to Thaksin's sister Yaowapha Wongsawat, and his former Cabinet, which includes Suriya Jungrungreangkit, Newin Chidchob and Somkid Jatusripitak.

Thaksin still has ample ammunition to play with. His latest show in Singapore has continued to rock the government at home, creating a further rift in Thai-Singaporean relations. As a result, anti-Singapore sentiment is gathering force in the country. What will happen next when Thaksin travels to Japan for another TV show?

Things seem to be getting out of control.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation