Among the main raw materials for making ethanol are agricultural products like corn and sugar cane, which are also foodstuffs for humans and farm livestock.

"Our forecasts say that ethanol will hold a 15-per-cent share of total global energy consumption in the next 20 years," IHS chairman and CEO Jerre Stead told a press conference yesterday at Bangkok's Oriental Hotel. "We suggest that ethanol producers begin turning to use waste as a raw material in order to secure food supplies."

He illustrated the problem by explaining that demand for ethanol doubled in the United States last year, which raised the price of corn more than 50 per cent.

However, he felt very positive about the future of alternative energies. IHS forecasts that within 50 years, 70 per cent of global energy will come from alternative sources.

Stead said trading in carbon dioxide emissions allowances is becoming a rapidly accepted worldwide practice, following principles established in the Kyoto Protocol.

Oil prices this year will depend on global politics, particularly the Iranian government's nuclear policy, as well as investments in new pipelines and refineries, he said, adding that the price of crude oil might shrink to US$50 (Bt1,800) per barrel by mid-year.

If the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries proceeds with its stated intention to cut back on oil supplies, then the price might rise. However, this would not bring about a considerable price increase, because many countries, such as China and Russia, have their own sources and are trying to reduce oil imports by promoting alternative energies, Stead said.

IHS recorded revenues of $550 million last year. Its energy segment grew 21 per cent last year to $294.3 million, from $242.3 million in 2005, and its engineering segment generated $256.5 million, up 9.71 per cent from $233.8 million in 2005.

Chalida   Ekvitthayavechnukul

The Nation