The bomb blasts also sent out a strong message that the remnants of the old regime are ready to cross swords in an eye for an eye dual with General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the head of the Council for National Security (CNS), and the government of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont.

The battle will become fiercer if both sides fail to cut a deal. The stakes are very high in this power play.

Thailand is a country that is ruled by not more than 100 members of three rival groups: the military, the police, and the old-time political elite. They know what their rivals are up to. If they could agree on sharing the benefits, the whole country would be able to move on. Until that happens, they will pull the strings behind the scenes under the camouflage of democracy, or half-baked democracy, whatever you call it.

You would be kidding yourself if you believe in the power of the people or democracy for the people at this stage of Thailand's political development. Coups may destroy democracy but the electoral process does not guarantee democracy either. At the end of the day, the old faces still rule over Thailand.

Now the members of the ruling elite are up in arms over yet another classic chapter of their power struggle. General Sonthi has emerged at the forefront of the new power after the September 19 military coup that toppled the Thaksin regime. Ever since, the new power and the old power have been waging a war against one another.

After the coup, members of the new power thought they would be better off if they played "soft-ball". They would not drive remnants of the old regime into a corner. The assets of the politicians associated with the old regime were not frozen. The diplomatic passport of the ousted prime minister was not revoked. Probes on corruption scandals alleged to have occurred under the old regime progressed at a snail's pace. The Thai Rak Thai Party came under the threat of dissolution for alleged election fraud.

However, in recent weeks the Assets Examination Committee has been moving at a faster pace in taking on the Shinawatra family's stock transactions. General Saprang Kalayanamit, a member of the National Security Council, has also strengthened the investigations of corruption scandals at Suvarnabhumi Airport, which throws into the net dozens of politicians and officials of the old regime.

Military allies of the old regime have also lost power after the coup. They are bitterly upset with their loss of power in this latest round. The police, who are mostly allies of the old regime, have been hanging on tightly to their power because they too are under the threat of being dismantled. You'd be kidding yourself again if you believed that the remnants of the old regime would do nothing to strike back.

How many schools in the Northeast and the North have been torched so far? Who has tried to discredit General Sonthi regarding his alleged double marriage certificates? Who dropped hints to the press concerning Prime Minister Surayud's resort home, allegedly on encroached land in Nakhon Ratchasima?

Now we've had eight bomb blasts in Bangkok on New Year's Eve. Only professionals could manage to undertake such a clandestine operation. In Thailand, only men in police and military uniforms have the capability to produce these kinds of bomb devices and set them off in different parts of Bangkok.

The blasts were not intended to result in a massive loss of life or casualties. They were political bombs with an underlying message: "I know what you're up to, but I am not afraid of you."

With these bombs, the old power and the new power are engaging in a very sophisticated power play. It could become a pretext for another coup or countercoup. If both sides do not handle the situation well, Thailand may turn into another Iraq.

The new power is faced with the dilemma that it will be in power until October before letting democracy resume its reluctant role in Thailand again, while the ousted prime minister is keen to return to Thailand at any time to reclaim power.

If the new power lets go of its power, the old power will certainly make a comeback under the guise of democracy. So we might expect to see the new power trying to hang on to power through a half-baked democracy. One way or another, the old power has to outlive the ousted prime minister otherwise it will become dead meat.

At that point, street protests might erupt again against the new power to further complicate the political situation. The old power is waiting to make a comeback if its core members survive the ordeal. After one side prevails, only then may Thailand return to peace again. Yet, at what price?

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation