They have succeeded to a certain extent in creating "reasonable doubt" over the issues, causing Surayud considerable unease despite his insistence that he would quit the premiership if there was any wrongdoing.

There has been an undeclared alliance between Thaksin cronies and public campaigners to cause political trouble and credibility problems for the CNS and Surayud, who have been relatively untainted by any scandal, especially when it comes to malfeasance.

Failing to find fault with the two leaders on any big issues, including their seizure of power through a coup, Thaksin's underlings and sympathisers have had to scratch for clues of mischief to cast them in a bad light.

Doing so would at least help divert the public's attention from the ongoing investigations into a series of corruption charges and other misdeeds committed by their boss, his family members and other relatives as well as his network of cronies in the civil service and in politics.

The increasing intensity and number of graft charges are making Thaksin more vulnerable and susceptible to criminal prosecution, beginning with formal charges and arrest warrants, discouraging his bid to return home.

His lawyer insists that Thaksin wants to stand trial and defend himself on those charges, but his cronies hope to use his presence and predicament to mobilise rural grassroots supporters for a massive rally. That would surely lead to ugly political scenes and potentially explosive trouble.

While pointing the accusing finger at General Sonthi for two marriage certificates, they simply ignored the fact he is a Muslim and allowed to have up to four wives, registered or otherwise. At the least the conjecture over the legality of his situation could hurt his image as a modest man.

General Surayud has acquired a piece of land from its previous occupant and built a small house to serve as a weekend hideaway. The land is said to be part of a forest reserve though the area is already becoming a small community. This is a real twist. Thaksin's cronies and underlings, who include former members of parliament, have totally ignored the corruption investigations with their boss as the prime target. Pressure group leaders have regarded the scandals with relative indifference.

Key members and factional leaders have already left the Thai Rak Thai Party to dissociate themselves from Thaksin, who is now regarded as too damaged to get back into politics. As the investigations deepen, there is the likelihood of penalties such as jail terms and assets confiscation. The investigators have already come up with an idea to set aside 25 per cent as a bounty for the recovery of assets plundered by crooked politicians during the Thaksin regime. The percentage is quite tempting judging from the massive assets stashed abroad, as judged by those who are close to the investigations.

The charges of apparent impropriety raised by Thaksin's cronies and public campaigners who have benefited from his hand-outs might cause them some unease, and growing frustration among those who are not happy with the slow progress of the corruption probe.

Both sides have to come up with explanations and countermoves fast so that the issues facing them are not blown out of proportion. At the same time, more digging is expected in other cases with more big fish in the dragnet.

That's not enough. The CNS and the government must work out new strategies to prevent potential trouble, as the day is drawing closer when the fate of the Thai Rak Thai Party will be determined by the Constitution Tribunal concerning allegations of election scams. If found guilty, not only will the party be dissolved, but all executive committee members, including Thaksin, could lose their political rights for as long as 10 years. Scores of hard-core politicians would be left out. That's what Thaksin and his cronies do not want to face.  By the way, 2007 might not be a happy New Year for many.

Sopon Ongkara