This, however, has nothing to do with former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's latest threat to come home to defend himself against a series of serious corruption charges. He can't come home again - without some serious implications upon his own future, political or otherwise.

Neither has my prediction anything to do with an astrologer who went on television recently to make the sensational forecast that "blood will be shed" between March 16 to March 18, next year. Of course, the real experts say a fortune-teller who wishes to make a name for himself is just like a stockbroker trying to blaze a trail: the trick is to make some wild, earthshaking predictions. If you miss, nobody will remember your statements; if, for some inexplicable reason, you hit the bull's eye, fame and fortune await you. But then you only undertake that kind of dangerous mission at your own peril.

My real polished crystal ball, nevertheless, tells me that the incoming 365 days will be a year of living dangerously for most Thais. Politics will dominate our lives but the economy isn't going to be plain sailing either. But the tenth anniversary of the Asian financial crisis next year will offer plenty of grim reminders that many hard lessons have yet to be learned. The highly volatile economic situation of 2007 will rekindle the frightening memories of 1997 in a very surreal way indeed. The overall macro-economic picture may not be a serious issue for Thailand next year, but the spill over from the "December 19 debacle" threatens to make regaining investor confidence, which was badly shattered by the imposition of a 30 per cent reserve requirement for capital inflow, a major challenge for the Surayud government.

The overnight flip-flop - with the central bank promptly lifting the rule for the stock market the next day - has raised doubts over the Thai government's policy on capital controls in the new year.

It will all boil down to one major theme: "balancing acts". In the economic field that means how Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont will go about striking a proper balance between export growth and preventing "hot money" from the outside from wreaking havoc with the baht exchange rate.

In the political arena, the balancing act will be between maintaining the perception of a serious attempt at political reform and producing a constitution that can be said to be free from the influence of the September 19 coup makers. The debate over a number of controversial constitutional clauses will be highly emotional, polarising, and inevitably partisan.

The "Old Ginger" Cabinet will find itself poorly qualified to handle such an atmosphere of divisiveness. The paradox isn't hard to understand though. A strong, decisive interim government would have further split the country, which has been clamouring for national reconciliation. But then, a conciliatory, consensus-seeking administration will satisfy nobody and anger every critic demanding prompt, no-nonsense punishments against the "remnants of the old power clique".

The spectre of ousted Premier Thaksin Shinawatra will loom large even as the new year begins, its menace matched only by the threat of the various anti-graft investigation committees to publicise the ex-premier's wrongdoings, as well as those of his relatives and underlings - and to bring them to book on a number of high-profile corruption cases.

The ferocious battle will begin as soon as 2007 dawns, with Thaksin intensifying his probing moves concerning the possibility of his returning from exile to at least make his presence felt, if not to directly challenge the legitimacy of the coup that toppled him. On the other side is the Council for National Security (CNS), threatening to have him booked on serious charges that would land him in police custody should he make good on his threat to come home.

2007 may prove to be the year that Thaksin sees a good portion of his wealth frozen or confiscated by investigators being questioned by an increasingly impatient public demanding real action against the previous government's widespread corruption. It will be a make-or-break year for both sides: for the coup-makers to prove the legitimacy of their decision to stage the September 19 putsch, and for Thaksin to struggle free of the tightening noose against his personal political influence and assets.

The situation in the deep South will get worse before it gets better. The new year will continue to see violence flare, if only because the government's olive branch to talk peace has caused confusion and possible friction among insurgent leaders.

The interim government has just got its act together by reviving the civilian-police-military combined operations centre for the far South that was abolished by the Thaksin government. The early part of 2007 will provide a crucial test of whether Prime Minister Surayud's "velvet-glove" approach can win the hearts and minds of the local people, long alienated by chronic corruption and strong-arm tactics employed by police and military personnel there.

But then, if done right, 2007 should be principally a year of nation building, making bold changes and taking on unprecedented challenges.

My Chinese astrologer friends tells me that the Year of the Red Pig or Boar combines two incompatible elements - fire and water - making it a year of instability and change, and also one of great potential. Old Chinese masters say that in the Year of the Pig, if you are willing to work hard and take a few risks, there is great potential to harness these dynamic energies too.

Keep your cool, double-check every rumour you hear. Listen to all sides of all the hot arguments that will definitely come in 2007 - and never, ever panic. Don't give up hope. Brave yourself for a roller-coaster ride. Of course, we as a nation will survive all the difficulties. For better or worse, we will emerge stronger and much saner.

Suthichai Yoon