Home

Weblog

Property

NationEjobs

What's On

Back Issue








Thu, March 15, 2007 : Last updated 16:23 pm (Thai local time)



Lite version


Printable version


E-mail this article


Bookmark



Web

The Nation




Home > Headlines > Pridiyathorn's big gamble





BLACK TUESDAY ANALYSIS
Pridiyathorn's big gamble

MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, a deputy prime minister and the finance minister, and the banking authorities have made a big mistake by introducing wholesale capital controls instead of selective controls on the money market to stem the baht speculation.

The result of this is the collapse of the Thai stock market. More than Bt800 billion in wealth was wiped from the stock market on Black Tuesday alone amid panic selling unseen in the Thai history.

However, Pridiyathorn moved quickly to repair the huge damage by announcing yesterday that the authorities would exempt capital controls on equity investment. Indeed, the banking authorities had not thought it through when they introduced wholesale capital controls without taking the equity market into account.

It is true that Thailand is facing economic trouble from the intense baht speculation. If unchecked, the baht could move up to Bt31Bt32 against the US dollar to bankrupt Thai exports, whose margins have been badly squeezed by the stronger baht. Since the beginning of this year, the baht has jumped from Bt41 to Bt35, the highest level in the region.

A former Bank of Thailand official said the banking authorities should have imposed selective controls on the money market to tackle the baht speculation at the source.

Foreign institutional investors and money managers have been pouring their investments into the baht bond market in order to make profits from the high interest rate of 6 per cent and the baht's upward trend.

Over the past three months, some Bt100 billion of foreign money has been flowing into Thailand to invest in the shortterm paper to speculate on the baht's rise. In December, some US$1 billion a day has been flowing into Thailand.

"If they wanted to quash speculation, they could have introduced the measures at the money market. But instead they have imposed capital controls on capital inflows without any discrimination," said the former Bank of Thailand official.

With the indiscriminate practices, foreign stock investors can only unload their investment portfolios. But that does not mean money is flowing out of Thailand like the 1997 financial crisis.

"Just wait and see, I don't think the baht will weaken like the banking authorities are hoping because money is not flowing out of the country. The foreign money, invested in stocks and bonds, is still locked in the country. Once the foreign investors have sold stocks, they go into the bond market instead of further speculation.

"If the maturity of the bonds expire, foreign investors will continue to roll over their investments. If the banking authorities are smart, they should have imposed the selective controls against the speculation in this money market," the former BOT official said.

Understandably, between the stock market and the export sector, Pridiyathorn would have to protect the export sector, which is the engine of Thai economic growth. But the stock market, which he intends to let go for the moment, also represents the wealth of the nation.

Broadly speaking, foreign money flowing into Thailand goes into foreign direct investment, the equity market and the money market (for example, baht bonds, nonresident accounts). The Bank of Thailand has introduced a shock therapy to ward off the baht speculation by requiring foreign investors to put 30 per cent of their total investment as a reserve requirement into a noninterest bearing account of the central bank.

If the investors take their money out within one year, they will only get 20 per cent of the amount while the remaining 10 per cent will go into the central bank's coffers.

Under this measure, foreign investors face a double jeopardy: they can only invest 70 per cent of their money brought into the country; and if they keep their money in Thailand for less than one year, they will be subject to 10 per cent withholding tax.

Korn Chatikavanij of the Democrat Party has called for the banking authorities to reverse the capital control measure before it is too late.

"The capital control measure will destroy the stock market," he said late yesterday.

"First, foreign investors will not bring in money to invest in Thai stocks if they can invest only 70 per cent of the total amount," Korn said.

"Second, some foreign institutional investors are obliged to sell Thai stocks because they have their own rule that they will not invest in a country with capital controls."

A source at a US investment banking house said: "This is what we call credibility damage. We never thought they would think in this short term and bureaucratic way. Already, foreign investors are concerned about the issues of nominees. Now it seems there is no direction in this country."


 
Rules and Conditions
1.The Nation reserves the right to delete any inappropriate comments.
2.Our users are not allowed to republicise or use any information except for your own    personal use. And The Nation web team is not responsible for any illegal comments.
 

Post Comment
 
Comment :  
From :  
   







Related Stories



It's Black Tuesday

Thai capital control would have no sudden impact : S & P

Stock market loses Bt500 billion in value : SEC

Central Bank should cut requirement on capital inflows : Teerana

Asian stocks punished as Thai govt spooks investors with capital controls

Pridyathorn, Kosit back measures despite SET plunge

Stock index still plunge after SET resume trading


Most Popular Headlines Stories


Swiss man pleads guilty to insulting Thai king

Photos of Smoke and Dust in the North are welcomed

Militants free driver who asks protection from Allah

Interview with Gen Suchinda, former coup leader

Thai baht hits new nine-year high


Home
I
Web Blog
I
Shopping
I
NationEjobs
I
Job Search
I
Web Directory
I
Back Issue


E-mail Us

I


Feed Back

I


Terms & Conditions

I


Advertisements

I


Site Map

Privacy Policy © 2006 www.nationmultimedia.com
44 Moo 10 Bang Na-Trat KM 4.5, Bang Na district, Bangkok 10260 Thailand
Tel 66-2-325-5555, 66-2-317-0420 and 66-2-316-5900 Fax 66-2-751-4446
Contact us: Nation Internet
File attachment not accepted!