While he has kept everybody guessing as to what kind of concessions he was willing to make, ethnic Malays in the restive region nevertheless welcomed the move.

But three months later - and after a number of goodwill gestures towards the Malay-speaking region that has never trusted the Thai state that governs it - no one on the ground has surfaced to take up the offer except, of course, the leaders of the long standing separatist groups. Just about all of these people live in exile in Europe or in neighbouring countries including Malaysia and Indonesia.

Most if not all of these groups emerged in the late 1960s but took a nosedive in the early 1990s after a blanket amnesty crippled their military wings.

Several rounds of secret talks between senior Thai security officials and a number of these leaders were held earlier this year on the Malaysian island of Langkawi. The forum was organised by former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamed and the Thai honorary consul in Langkawi, Shazryl Eskay Abdullah. It was billed as a confidence-building measure.

A set of recommendations was handed to the Thaksin government in February, but nothing came of this move. But with a new government in place, Eskay has decided to give the Thai government another nudge and urged them to return to the table.

Many of the old guard are keen on having a third party sit in on future talks with the Thais for fear that Bangkok will stab them in the back.

Surayud, on the other hand, does not believe these men have the kind of clout that could influence the new generation of village-based fighters locally known as juwae, thus the foot-dragging. Because of the brutal methods employed by the new insurgents, some exiled leaders have distanced themselves from the militants for fear that any association with them could undermine their movements.

Many of Surayud's security advisors view the return of these ageing separatist leaders as part of the national reconciliation process, not a security issue that needs immediate attention. Others think the old guard should be given the benefit of the doubt as long as they denounce violence and give up separatism.

After all, more than 1,900 people have been killed during the ongoing violence since January 2002, so what's to lose?

The old guard is stuck in a dilemma. It wants to be taken seriously and it continues to claim to have a sound network on the ground, but won't show the trump card in its hand for fear of the legal and political implications.

In this post-September 11 world, said one exiled leader, there are just too many people out there who would love to paint this struggle as a battle between Islam and a Buddhist state. And in today's political arena, with such a view becoming so prevalent, many in the old guard are afraid of being blamed for every single death in the South.

For weeks now, the authorities in Bangkok have been engaging in tense brain-storming sessions to map out the next step. Invitations to the juwae to surface haven't worked and some are thinking that perhaps it's time to go back to the table with the old guard. The tricky part is how to go about it with little or no outside interference.

Nobody trusts Malaysia to be an honest broker, but at the same time there is a general agreement that it's going to be extremely difficult to go it alone because the Malaysian authorities have been keeping a close watch on the activities and movements of the old guard.

In his unofficial capacity and with his links to the Thai state, Eskay sees himself as a potential broker, taking up where he and Mahathir left off in Langkawi. "The Malaysian government," said Eskay, "could come in later in the game to endorse any conclusion reached."

Thai security planners, on the other hand, would rather deal with the juwae directly. Observers call this wishful thinking because these militants are not only secretive but are so decentralised they don't have the capacity to evolve into a conventional force, much less a political entity to negotiate with a sovereign state like Thailand.

Meanwhile, Surayud is continuing to reach out to the Malays in the South, apologising for the harsh measures of the previous government, specifically the Tak Bai tragedy in which at least 85 young men died while in custody. He also permits Malay to be used as a "working language" alongside Thai. Surayud's strategy is to reach out to as many people as possible in the hope they will have faith in the Thai state.

In a recent interview with Al Jazeera television, Surayud reaffirmed his strategy to continue to keep the old guard at arm's length.

 "What I'm trying to do is to talk to the majority of people, not a small group of people. I don't have to talk to the representatives; I just talk to the kids in school, thousands of them at once. I talk to kids in colleges," he said.

But Surayud's gestures have been met with a dose of reality. The juwae responded with relentless daily assaults, disregarding his conciliatory approach.

But Malay Muslim leaders have urged Suruyud to stay the course. They say the security problems of today and the historical mistrust between ethnic Malays and the Thai state are two separate but related issues.

It would be unrealistic, they say, to expect the juwae to put down their arms because of a handful of gestures.

Don Pathan

The Nation