Fortunately for them, top members of the Council for National Security (CNS) and the government gave a half-hearted response, staying noncommittal, so to speak, because they had to gauge the potential for troublesome incidents if Thaksin's fans turned out to give him a hero's homecoming.

Actually, the top brass should have called the Thai Rak Thai's bluff by saying that Thaksin would be welcomed back home wholeheartedly, and then transform his status into that of an accused in a number of criminal cases.

They let Thai Rak Thai lawyers off the hook pretty lightly, saying that the courts should decide on the matter and that the question of national security had to be considered. They obviously did not want to take the risk of having to deal with Thaksin supporters in noisy rallies and street demonstrations.

The top brass should have let Thaksin speak out on whether he wanted to be the star witness and defender of the party. If he did not want to come home as suggested by Thai Rak Thai members, his status could then be transformed into that of a fugitive, with warrants issued for his extradition if the government wants him to stand trial in criminal proceedings.

There has been no response from Thaksin so far as to whether he wants to defend the party against charges of wrongdoing in the previous general election. If found guilty, the party's penalty could be dissolution and the banning of its executive committee members from politics for a certain period to be decided by the judges.

Thaksin's legal counsel and underlings must have entertained the hope that his presence at the trial would not only enable him to come home for a long stay, but also restore the Thai Rak Thai's popularity and his own stature after the damage caused by accusations of serious criminal offences.

His wife and children are facing charges of stock-transaction scams and dodging tax, among others, that will tie them up in messy legal battles with public prosecutors for years. Moreover, Thaksin himself has to fight a criminal charge filed by an American businessman for wrongful acts.

With more and more investigations into wrongdoing by Thaksin, his family, cronies and civil servants who were part of the vast corruption network during his premiership and the building up of cases to prosecute them, it is highly unlikely, if not impossible, that the deposed leader will voluntarily set foot in his home country again.

With vast assets amassed through business ventures and what not, Thaksin's only financial troubles would be whether he could ever measure the extent of his wealth or deplete even a small portion of it through living a normal lifestyle for the rest of his days.

Obviously, his billions do not give him the happiness and enjoyment he craves from satisfying his gigantic ego and grand ambition. To him, money without power, recognition and dread from other people does not mean much, especially when nobody is awed by his power.

Thaksin's lack of happiness is due mainly to his perceived helplessness and failure to protect his family members in the face of serious criminal charges. His network within government circles is clearly disheartened by the legal backlash against top revenue officials who assisted Thaksin's tax-free stock transactions.

As the investigations into wrongdoings near the stage for criminal proceedings, Thaksin must have resigned himself to the reality that there is slim chance for him to fight the charges without changing the political equation, which would only be possible through a regime change.

That will be even more difficult now after the changes in the power structure within the armed forces carried out by the CNS, whose grip on power remains firm while Thaksin's clout and popularity continue to weaken with more exposures of corruption and misdeeds by his government.

The Surayud government is saddled mainly by the failure to quell terrorism in the three southernmost provinces. Despite clumsiness and a lack of flair in the political game, the absence of corruption in this government is a blessing. Its weakness lies in a number of serious errors of judgement on policy and public issues, making key Cabinet members become major liabilities.

As time passes, with Thai Rak Thai still in disarray, Thaksin will become less of a serious threat. The only way to make his return possible is failure on the part of the CNS and the government to fulfil their pledge to the people and make the criminal charges against him stick.

Sopon Onkgara