It is like a blast from the past. Over the past six years, Thaksin was the chieftain of New Money, riding on the crest of the telecom boom. New Money challenged Old Money for pre-dominance over Thai society. There were 10 families - including the likes of Shinawatra, Damapong, Wongsawat, Mahagitsiri, Maleenont and Jungrungreangkit - who formed the core of the New Money. Through siblings, business and political connections, New Money wanted to change Thailand's political landscape for good.

The bankers embody Old Money. But the bankers got hurt very badly during the 1997 financial crisis. The IMF, the World Bank and the tough capital adequacy requirements they imposed on the Thai banks almost destroyed the bankers' family fortunes. Still, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank and Siam Commercial Bank have managed to survive Thailand's worst crisis ever to hit that sector. The Wanglee clan, who used to own Nakornthorn Bank, lost their shirts. The Chearavanonts, who control the CP Group, should also be counted as Old Money, but they went on to ally themselves closely with the Thaksin regime. Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, the liquor tycoon and another member of Old Money, has steered clear of politics, brilliantly charting his own course.

Over the past decade, Old Money has been heart-broken again and again. When Thaksin rose to power in 2001, he did not trust Old Money at all. He still could remember the days when he was struggling to build up his telecom business and had to go down on his knees to beg for loans from them. Thaksin did not conceal his contempt for Old Money. He considered himself ahead of his time. He was in the booming telecom business while the bankers still made money the old-fashioned way from interest-rate spreads. He was a self-made man, racking up more than US$1 billion within one generation when he was in his mid-forties. It had taken several generations for Old Money to accumulate the wealth Thaksin had in just one.

So when Thaksin took over Thailand, he would not share power with Old Money. The bankers were heartbroken again for failing to climb into the bandwagon. Still, the Chearavanonts became a reluctant partner in his regime, while the Sophonpanich family was kept at arm's length, in the outer circle. Kasikornbank was completely left in the cold. Strangely enough, Siam Commercial Bank would ally more closely with Thaksin than other banks - so close, in fact, that it got the Shin Corp deal.

At the height of Thaksin's reign, the Shinawatra Tower, which is the headquarters of Shin Corp, was the centre of power. It was here that Boonklee Plangsiri presided over Shin Corp as chairman. But he would also work for Thaksin as one of his most trusted aides. Most of the important deals had to pass his scrutiny first. Dr Prommin Lertsuridej, Thaksin's secretary, was also a former Shin Corp man, whom Thaksin trusted the most. The trio effectively managed Thailand like a company. But the coup brought New Money down like a house of cards. The National Counter Corruption Commission and the Asset Examination Committee are building up corruption cases against New Money.

The balance of power is shifting back to Old Money. Bangkok Bank has emerged stronger than ever from the financial hangover, with all the benefits of its long-standing political and business connections intact. It is now the strongest bank of all, having benefited most from this power shift. Siam Commercial Bank is also a new force to be reckoned with. Kasikornbank has yet to carve out a patch in this new ballgame.

Bangkok Bank has nurtured an elite camp under its roof. General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, is the bank's honorary chairman. Prem's power and prestige was demonstrated when, not long after the coup, Pojaman Shinawatra, wife of the deposed Thaksin, visited his residence with her tail between her legs. That event showed who really called the shots in Thailand. Bangkok Bank has sent Kosit Panpiemras, its executive chairman, to become deputy prime minister and industry minister. Bangkok Bank dislikes liberalisation. Kosit also does not trust any policy that too hastily pushes open the Thai economy. He and MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, the deputy prime minister and finance minister, another rising star of Old Money, are on good terms. Together, they are undoing the legacy of the Thaksin regime.

If all this is not enough, Bangkok Bank will also field Dr Amorn Chandarasomboon, one of its directors, to play the most influential role in drafting the new constitution. Amorn, Thailand's foremost expert in public law, is likely to chair a 35-member constitution drafting committee.

Since New Money has destroyed Thai democracy, it is now time to prevent New Money from re-entering politics. The underlying theme of the new constitution is that it will prevent the New Money capitalists from holding political parties and MPs as their hostages. MPs might be able to run for office on an independent ticket. The bureaucrats will dominate the Senate again. A mechanism will be built in to prevent politicians from meddling with independent institutions.

Old Money is indeed starting to reclaim its chocolate cake and eating it. If you want a sure bet, go for BBL and SCB.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation