The final chapter in the iTV saga could play out today if the Supreme Administra-tive Court rules in favour of the PM's Office on its concession fee and programming ratio, paving the way for another lawsuit and hefty fines of over Bt90 billion.

In the worst case scenario, the landmark ruling would lead to its bankruptcy and nationalisation of the independent TV channel, academics and stock analysts said.

In their opinion, if the court overturns an arbitration panel's 2004 judgement that iTV could lower its concession fee to Bt230 million and adjust its programming, then iTV was likely to face fines of over Bt90 billion for having done so without the PM's Office's consent. iTV's total assets as of September 30 stood at Bt3.7 billion, meaning it would be bankrupted and its concession returned to the government.

"Then, the government would have two choices for iTV. It could repackage the concession and put it up for a new bid. Or it could turn iTV into a state TV channel," said Somkiat Tangkitvanich, research director of Thailand Development Research Institute.

"Whatever, it won't affect investor confidence but it will serve as a

lesson for investors that they should thoroughly look into contracts and consider if they can fulfil them," he said.

This afternoon, iTV will broadcast the court's announcement live - alternating with its news programmes that have won awards.

After the court issues the ruling at 2pm, the PM's Office will call a press conference to reveal its next move, according to Chulayuth Hiranyavasit, permanent secretary of the PM's Office.

"We have not yet discussed with the government what to do with it, but the office has some ideas in mind. This is a big issue. The policy must be drawn up by the government. If the iTV concession is revoked, it is beyond our power," he said.

He said state prosecutors are now considering how to proceed with the penalty issue and insisted the Bt94 billion fine, calculated on a daily basis, was correct.

Social and media reform advocates expected today's verdict to lead to a fundamental change of iTV to benefit the public. Former senator Jon Ungphakorn said if the verdict lead to the nationalisation of iTV, a public campaign would be needed to prevent the station from becoming another state channel that mostly echoed government propaganda.

"iTV should be an independent voice to give people the other side of the news and information," Jon suggested. "We have enough channels that serve only state or commercial purposes. The Thai people will participate in democracy if we receive well-rounded information."

Jon said there were many funding models for public channels such as the BBC to which the public contribute or PBS in the United States which is sponsored by private enterprises.

A stock analyst believed that if the concession was revoked and the government re-sold it, it would be difficult to find buyers. "The company is cheap. But the buyers' motives would be in focus no matter if they are politically connected, independent or influenced by a non-profit organisation. If they are looking for gains, it seems difficult to expect extraordinary profits from the company."

Stock analysts believe iTV would face difficult financial times if the court overturned the arbitration panel's ruling. Even without the hefty fine, it would still be subject to huge concession fees. Meanwhile, the high ratio of news programming meant low advertising income and lower competitiveness against other TV operators that are subject to lower concession fees.

Quarterly, iTV's total revenue is about Bt500 million against operating costs of nearly Bt360 million. Based on the annual concession fee of Bt230 million, in the third quarter of this year its net income is Bt89 million. If the higher concession fee is in place, the company could be in the red in the quarter.

"With the original concession fee, sooner or later, the company would have to shut its doors. The worst-case court ruling would just speed up the process," said an analyst who asked not to be named.

The wrangling over the concession fee and programming has continued for two years since the arbitration panel in January 2004 granted iTV a lower concession fee.

Originally, the fee was 44 per cent of revenue or Bt1 billion, whichever was higher. The panel also allowed iTV to provide more entertainment programmes to generate higher advertising income. However, the PM's Office did not accept the ruling and forwarded the case to the Central Administrative Court, which overturned the arbitration panel's ruling. ITV fought back in the Supreme Administrative Court.

Over 200 people from Ayutthaya yesterday appeared at iTV's headquarters to show their support. Joining them were small groups of people from various areas including Laksi Villa estate, whose flooding problems were helped after an iTV report.

iTV's shareholders are to convene on December 29 to consider how to settle the dispute with the PM's Office.

iTV's share price closed 6.87 per cent higher at Bt2.80 on turnover of Bt237.4 million, mainly due to speculative buying.

"They [speculators] are betting that there may be some measures to soften the dispute," Sukit Udomsirikul, assistant managing director of Siam City Securities, said.

"Personally, I see no such way. ITV is not financially troubled or suffering from management problems. The problem lies with the concession. Though Temasek could step in to help, it is iTV that has to settle the issue."