As Thailand embarks on the journey to framing its 18th constitution in 74 years of democracy, many people are once again hoping for a fresh start to a better charter and returning the country to the path of democracy.

But as someone who has thoroughly examined the history surrounding every Thai constitution, noted political scientist Thamrongsak Petchlert-anan predicts the 18th charter is likely to be doomed because it will not relinquish political control to the common man.

At best, it will attempt to balance and perpetuate the ongoing power struggles among the traditional elite, the military, business interests and entrenched bureaucrats and politicians.

"In the making of the 18th constitution, I can see the 19th and the 20th coming already," Thamrongsak says.

"Our entire constitutional history has been driven by power shifts from one elite group to another. When one seizes control it writes a constitution to exclude or limit the power of the others. Then the losers fight back and write a constitution to serve their own interests.

"Constitution drafters never have embraced the true spirit of democracy embodying the principles of civil rights, liberty and equality."

This is why Thailand averages one charter for every five years, with some years such as 1932 and 1991 even going through two of them.

It doesn't help that most of the 11 successful military coups had produced two charters - an interim document followed by a "permanent" constitution incorporating some form of an election process.

Few countries surpass Thailand in terms of the frequency of constitutional change, he said. Even the "People's Constitution" that was torn up just three months ago could not last, because it too was written under a military mindset.

The 1997 charter ensured a strong government and weak parliament, while excluding the majority of people by requiring a bachelor's degree for all MPs and ministers.

"Believe it or not, the 1997 constitution is the one Field Marshal Thanom [Kittikachorn, prime minister from 1963-1973] would desire. But like his, the recent strong government crashed because its cronies took almost everything and gave little to other people," says Thamrongsak, who has authored and edited many books on Thai constitutions and politics.

The 18th charter is also shaping up to shut out the majority of the people from elected positions, Thamrongsak said. Talks are underway to establish a political ethics development committee to screen the qualifications and education levels of prospective candidates.

"Throughout the history of our struggle for democracy, the elite have always claimed that Thais are not ready for democracy because of their low education, while in fact it is the elite themselves who have destroyed the culture of democracy in Thailand."

Apichat Satitniramai, a political economist from Thammasat University, said that now, no matter how many interest groups are allowed to participate in the drafting of the next charter, the Council for National Security (CNS) and its military backers have already demonstrated by their control of the process, their intent to steer its outcome.

"Although there will be a so-called public referendum on the final draft of the charter, people will feel like they are wrapped in straight jacket, compelled to say yes to the constitution or else they could see the junta introduce a dusted-off version of any old constitution more to their liking."

Even if the drafting process is left entirely to the people, constitutional critics claim that there is a more fundamental problem that the CNS has yet to address that threatens the survival of the end product - corruption.

Apichat said Thailand could have the best constitution ever conceived, but until the government and society as a whole begin to abide by and enforce these laws, such documents will never pass the test of time.

Corruption fighter Juree Vichit-vadakarn agrees. No constitution, no matter how lengthy and how stuffed with rules, can outsmart those allowed to ignore it.

"People subvert everything," said Juree, secretary-general of Transparency Thailand. "People are always smarter than the law. I don't worry too much about the new constitution. It's more important to dialogue directly with people to build an honest society, and not tolerate even petty corruption."

Corruption was one of the principle issues the CNS said it would tackle, but Juree said the big fish are hard to catch, as they are clever and experienced enough to leave no trace.

"We lack the social infrastructure to build up a true democratic and transparent society. We have seen so much injustice and double standards in many of the past decades. People are hooked by handouts. We have lived under the shadow of the old patronage system for too long."

She points to the UN Convention on Corruption, which went into effect last December, as evidence of Thailand's unwillingness to seriously tackle the problem. Eighty countries have so far ratified it, but not here.

The convention begins by stating how corruption threatens "the stability and security of societies, undermines the institutions and values of democracy, ethical values and justice, and jeopardises sustainable development and the rule of law".

Apichat concludes that Thai society has not really seen any signs of serious leadership from the CNS that would cause people to believe that bribes, payoffs and vote-buying will be any different a year from now.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

The Nation