In US dollar terms, Thailand's trade balance moved into the black for the first time this year at the end of October, with a surplus of US$447.2 million (Bt16.37 billion). But when the figures are converted to a constantly strengthening baht, the surplus becomes a deficit of Bt17.08 billion. The difference is due mainly to the baht's appreciation against the dollar. The year's first trade surplus resulted when the total value of exports reached $107.11 billion, equal to Bt4.10 trillion when converted over the first 10 months of the year, or up 16.8 per cent.

The value of imports over the same period was $106.67 billion, equal to Bt4.12 trillion, a jump of 7.92 per cent.

Commerce permanent secretary Karun Kittisataporn said Thailand had a trade surplus in dollar terms but remained in deficit after converting to the baht. This is normal, because of the baht's strength.

"The ministry is meeting privatesector representatives to learn of the effects of the stronger baht, while the Bank of Thailand is closely monitoring the problem," he said, adding that businessmen would like to see a stable value for the baht.

Despite the strength of the currency, Thailand enjoyed a trade surplus of $810.4 million last month. This led Karun to predict yesterday that Thailand would achieve a total trade surplus of about $1 billion this year. However, if it faces a deficit, it will not be more than $1 billion.

Foreign Trade Department deputy director-general Nuntawan Sakuntanaga warned that in the final months of the year, the trade balance would be affected by three major import items. These are $439 million for aircraft imported by Thai Airways International, $45.1 million for construction materials imported by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand and $38 million worth of pipeline imported by PTT.

Last month's imports rose 9.5 per cent from the same period last year to $10.69 billion, due mainly to increasing imports of energy, raw materials and consumer goods.

Fuel imports rose 24.8 per cent last month to $2.28 billion. Of these, crude-oil imports averaged 940,810 barrels a day, up 20.3 per cent from October 2005.

Nuntawan said the rising cost of imports was now under the ministry's control. For the rest of this year, the cost of imports should not exceed $12 billion a month, which should result in a healthy trade balance. Last month, exports in all sectors rose, and export growth jumped 20.12 per cent from October 2005, to $11.5 billion.

Export Promotion Department director-general Rachane Potjana-

suntorn said this year's export growth should reach its target of 16-17 per cent, with the value between $128.7 billion and $130.4 billion.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation