SIDELINES
Showing mercy or fear of acting decisively will be costly

There was a brief news report on Friday on the immediate reshuffles of 136 commanding military officers with a surprisingly candid explanation that the order was necessary to prevent another possible coup attempt. This is barely two months after a group of battle tanks returned to their bases.
The news did not create a big fuss but it surely sent disturbing signals to people who hoped that the top military brass under the banner of the Council of National Security (CNS) was in full control of the situation and that the Surayud government should therefore face no menacing threat. Why should the CNS seem to be overly concerned about a possible coup by junior officers of the rank of colonel and lieutenant colonel? Because they can seek support from other elements by claiming that the previous coup has not produced the desirable results widely expected by those who despised the Thaksin regime. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin's coup in September was successful largely due to the strong and broad-based support of mid-level commanding officers who really counted on action and now feel betrayed. The risk they ran of facing treason charges has not been well compensated. The transfers served to nip in the bud any possible challenge. Another coup could lead to chaos, with unpredictable consequences. Sonthi, who is Army chief and the CNS chairman, has reason to play safe. A few days earlier, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who is "ex-" many top positions including premier, came out with a warning that there could be another coup because junior officers were unhappy with the poor showing of the CNS and the interim government. There is increasing public frustration over the slow action in dealing with the massive corruption and other unsavoury practices during the Thaksin administration. Ongoing probes focus only on Thaksin's family members while there is no investigation of wrongdoing by former Cabinet members and Thaksin cronies. There have been no concrete results after two months. Nobody has any idea when there will be conclusions and final results if all the cases have to be subject to due legal process, which means long years of court battles and appeals. At the same time, the well-funded so-called "undercurrents" and anti-CNS moves by Thaksin's supporters continue unhampered. The CNS has not been strict in the enforcement of martial law for fear of an international outcry. The CNS and the Surayud government chose to take a defensive role instead of taking decisive moves to make the coup worth the effort and the risk of failure. Those junior officers were impatient with the lack of firm action on wrongdoing by Thaksin's cronies, who have not been subjected to investigation for questionable wealth and conduct while holding public office. At least the situation is less worrisome for General Sonthi, in that if junior officers were to stage another coup it would not be for a return to power by Thaksin but to expedite the elimination of sinister elements that remain a threat to the long-term future of the country. The two-month period following the September 19 coup seems very long given the little progress on the CNS's declared mission and the promise of political reform by the Surayud government. Both have been distracted by news and concerns about attempts to return to power by Thaksin and his supporters. Those who fear such a possibility are the opponents of the Thaksin regime. They see that while the ex-premier and his family members face investigations into their assets, business deals and tax evasion, their massive wealth has been undisturbed so far. Though Thaksin is not around, key leaders of his party can still do a lot of things to discredit the CNS and the government. It's time for the CNS and the Surayud government to heed the warning signal from the talk about another coup attempt. More damage has been done. They should realise that as long as their performance remains below the public's expectations, it is not difficult to predict what will come of the bitter disappointment and frustration. A successful means to prevent another coup, or subdue such ambitious thinking, is for the CNS and the government to show impressive results instead of kindness towards the wrongdoers of the former regime. Those partners in crime would certainly not reciprocate any mercy shown by the CNS once they regain power through big-money and pork-barrel politics.
Sopon Onkgara
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