Deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has declared publicly that it is too soon to return to Thailand, but his globetrotting and current presence in Southeast Asia has got people wondering: What's he up to?

Thaksin was forced to live in exile in London shortly after the September 19 coup but has hardly been out of the spotlight. He is as newsworthy today as in his five years in power.

Unlike former Prime Minister Chatichai Choonhavan or outspoken politician Chalerm Yoobamrung - who sought exile respectively in London and Denmark after the 1991 coup - Thaksin has travelled non-stop on his diplomatic passport.

Believe it or not, since the coup Thaksin has racked up 33,000 air kilometres - from the streets of London to the beaches of Bali. That is just 7,000 kilometres short of a global circumnavigation along the Equator.

From New York, where he was when overthrown, he jetted to London and holed up in his luxury Kensington apartment, which is his eldest daughter's base to attend university.

Thaksin was then spotted in a Miami coffee shop. He then flew to China and Hong Kong, and is now in Bali.

The Hong Kong Oriental Daily News splashed his picture on its front page on Tuesday Thaksin was seen holding his wife Pojaman's hand as they shopped in the island's high-priced Central district.

And yesterday he checked into a luxury resort on the Indonesian getaway island of Bali.

Popping up around the world is, of course, Thaksin's right. He can go on forever, at his own expense. His trip from West to East is commonplace for jet-set millionaires with time to kill and money to burn.

Wintertime in London with the boos of expatriate Thais ringing in his ears was probably not to his liking. He needed to find somewhere with a warm welcome and climate. Somewhere more like Thailand, somewhere in Asia.

But, politically, his world jaunts - London to Miami, London to China and Hong Kong and then Bali - are significant to the military-backed government in Bangkok.

Thaksin might be seeking sympathy from his political base - the grass-roots people in rural the North and Northeast. He has tried to create an impression that the junta and its government are bullying him.

Thaksin has opted for countries close to his homeland where he will be sure to catch the attention of the news media with an eye on Thai politics - not the biggest deal in Europe.

Last week he was in Beijing, this week it's Hong Kong and Bali - all just a few hours by plane from Bangkok. He has plans to return to Hong Kong, but he is still denied a return to Thailand.

More importantly, Thaksin's waltz through in many countries might be to show he is a free man and not a prisoner of the junta. He may want to be seen entering and exiting any nation he wishes - to cement the idea he has done nothing wrong.

Thaksin's activities could be deemed a political disturbance for the military-backed administration. His reappearance in the region may have made officials at Government House nervous and prompted them to recommend diplomatic travel privileges be revoked to make it harder for him to get around.

Thaksin and his activities may unsettle the army chiefs and their government as long as the former prime minister remains indictment-free in courts here.

For, despite a slew of allegations, the junta has yet to prosecute the former premier on charges of abuse of power and corruption - which were some of the reasons it cited for seizing power.

Thaksin is quick to exploit uncertainty for his own political gain and the junta appears on the defensive and insecure in handling this novel situation.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has shut the door on a Thaksin return until after general elections scheduled a year from now. But the ousted leader has still rattled the Council for National Security (CNS) and its government with his presence close to Thailand.

With Thaksin in the region, the CNS and government may lack the confidence to lift martial law and restrictions on political activity due to fears he may seek to encourage subversive activities in the Kingdom while he is abroad.

The junta is facing all kinds of political waves. "Undercurrents", or subversive acts, by Thaksin supporters may be easy to arrange and could well shake the junta.

Former PM and Cabinet minister during the Thaksin era, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, created his own wave last week - above ground, you could say - when he attacked the appointment of generals to state-enterprise boards and supported a return home for Thaksin.

Now, Thaksin himself is exploiting the media to unsettle the waters.

So, until the graft-busters find something of substance, the top brass is unlikely to be able to strike back. They will have to endure the waves. 

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation