The deep South has been transformed into a battlefield with over 1,700 people killed since January 2004 despite the heavy military presence there. As the death toll keeps rising and the situation descends into further chaos, it is becoming impossible to ignore the utter failure of the security forces to achieve the objectives that they set out to do: suppress the insurgency and restore peace in the strife-torn region.

The Thai public has made allowances for the time our security forces may have needed to adopt and adapt strategies and tactics in order to combat the militants more effectively. But the security forces, which lack battle-readiness in general and counter-insurgency capability in particular, continue to fumble about without any coherent plan of action on how to achieve their objectives, nor any clear-cut rules of engagement with which to hunt down insurgents or to separate them from the civilian population.

The bulk of the military force dispatched to the three provinces simply sits idly in barracks while small contingents sent on daily patrolling duty become easy prey for insurgents. The insurgents have learned how to use hit-and-run tactics to their advantage because they know the security forces dare not pursue them into the villages and communities where they hide and plot their next attacks.

While low-tech insurgents working in makeshift bomb-making factories have developed the capability to launch coordinated attacks in up to 40 or 50 different locations (timed within minutes of one another across a whole province and beyond), the security forces, armed to the teeth with the latest hi-tech weaponry, often fail to dispatch timely reinforcement in aid of soldiers and policemen who fall victim to roadside ambushes.

The security forces have been bogged down in a vicious circle: lack of intelligence information prevents them from effectively combating insurgents, which explains why they fail to establish control of geographical areas. This, in turn, allows insurgents to move easily among the civilian population, causing widespread fear and intimidating would-be informants from coming forward with valuable information about the identity of insurgents and their hideouts.

In the meantime, government leaders keep reciting the "peace and reconciliation" mantra as if they really believe that by repeating it often enough the militants and separatists will be persuaded to abandon their cause, lay down their arms and surrender to the authorities without a shot being fired. But the Surayud government and security forces must be reminded that the psychological battle to "win hearts and minds" must be carried out in tandem with effective military action.

The latest incident in which more than 100 Buddhists fled their remote villages in Yala for fear of their safety, seeking shelter at a Buddhist temple, is most disturbing. These Thai citizens have lost all faith in the security forces to provide them with protection against harassment by insurgents who have killed and maimed their loved ones and burned down their houses in recent months. Despite reassurance from the provincial authorities and security forces, many villagers said they would resettle outside the mainly Muslim provinces because they no longer feel safe living there. It must be made clear that Buddhists, who form about 20 per cent of the total population in the southernmost region, have every right to lead their lives in peace and dignity just like the Muslim Thais who form the overwhelming majority.

This incident signifies a failure on the part of the country's security apparatus. Unless a drastic change is made to overhaul strategies and tactics and improve the armed forces' discipline, raise morale, increase counter-insurgency capability, the outcome of the war against the insurgency will continue to be uncertain.