Former premier Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, far left, makes a point during a dinner at his home on Monday with members of the Council for National Security, including chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, far right.

So what is General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh up to? One can't easily decode the mind of the old general. But he has shown Thai society how important he is by having all the members of the Council for National Security (CNS) go over to his residence on Monday for a face-saving dinner.

This was a theatrical act to gain attention because ex-premier Chavalit had been left out in the cold. The CNS did not consult him at all when it appointed the ministers to join the interim government. His people did not get a seat on any state enterprise and the general did not get any credit for his clandestine role in bringing down Thaksin Shinawatra.

This prompted him on Friday to come out and attack the CNS for its failure to live up to expectations. He also criticised the CNS for letting too many generals sit on the boards of state enterprises. If the CNS did not do things right, there might be a counter-coup. He added salt to the CNS's wounds by suggesting Thaksin be allowed to return home and put under house arrest so the government could closely monitor his movements.

It seems like a crazy idea to let Thaksin return home during this time of political instability, but then Chavalit is capable of doing anything unimaginable.

Army commander General Sonthi Boonyaratglin hit back at Chavalit, questioning whether he had a hidden agenda by suggesting the possibility of a counter-coup. General Surayud Chulanont, the prime minister, came out to defuse the tension by asserting Thaksin could only return home after a new elected government came into being.

Thaksin has been making all kinds of movements from abroad to create an impression that he is still a force to be reckoned with or that he will some day return to assume power again.

On Monday, Sonthi and the other CNS members went to meet Chavalit at his Pinpraphakhom residence to talk things out. The substance of the talks has not yet been reported, but the unfolding drama appears good enough for Chavalit's political agenda. Some pundits said Chavalit's display of reserved power was meant to signal that he still would like to have a role in Thai politics.

Chavalit would love to retain the MPs in the Northeast, who are now attached to Thai Rak Thai. Most of them are former members of the New Aspiration Party, founded by Chavalit himself before the party merged with Thai Rak Thai. If Thai Rak Thai were to be dissolved by a court ruling, then these MPs would need to find a new political party - and Chavalit could still hold a magnet.

The CNS has been in disarray following Chavalit's damaging remarks. It can't afford to have too many enemies, yet its popularity is dwindling because it has failed to act decisively enough to fulfil the high public expectations in the post-coup period.

Cracks appear to have widened between the CNS, the Surayud government and its key allies who joined forces to bring down the Thaksin regime.

Chavalit has now established a good relationship with Sonthi Limthongkul, the media tycoon, who is one of the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy. Some of his people have been writing columns for Manager magazine.

Sonthi, too, is not very happy with the CNS, which has tolerated remnants of the Thaksin regime. The CNS has awarded former associates of the Thaksin regime with ministerial portfolios and with seats in the National Legislative Assembly. At the same time, the allies, who had risked their future and fought the Thaksin regime for more than a year, have stood to benefit very little from the new political landscape. The Peoples Alliance for Democracy can be re-activated any time if things go wrong, either against the CNS or the Surayud government. Sonthi is also holding his microphone of mass destruction close to his chest.

The Surayud government has also felt uneasy with the CNS, which has failed to fulfil the four-point pledges underlying the September 19 coup.

First, the country had been divided as never before and violence could well have erupted. Second, there was widespread corruption. Third, independent institutions had been compromised to the extent that they could not perform their duties as entrusted by the Constitution. Finally, there were actions bordering on contempt of the monarchy.

No concrete action has been taken so far that has had any ameliorating effects on those points. The CNS's appointment of generals to the boards of state enterprises has also embarrassed the Surayud government, which would like to establish honesty, integrity and good governance as a norm. Some members of the CNS also harbour political ambitions, which might backfire against the Surayud government and the CNS as a whole.

Looking ahead, the CNS and the Surayud government may need to quietly sit down and discuss just how they will steer the country toward more stability. Only decisive actions and honesty will help them guide the country back on to a democratic path.

Political Desk

The Nation