While CNS chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin declared in a recent interview with The Nation that he would stop Thaksin's plane from landing, he knows he cannot be absolutely sure of monitoring every incoming flight - not to mention every general under his command. Rumours that Thaksin remarked to his aides that "a billion baht should be enough to buy them off" were certainly not lost on the coup leader.

Then former prime minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh gave a new twist to the whole issue by announcing over the weekend that Thaksin should be allowed to return because it would be easier to keep him under watch here than while he was on the loose. A strange statement indeed coming from a man who reportedly had a hand in pushing for Thaksin's ouster.

Though "Big Jiew" is synonymous with incoherence, his latest remarks shouldn't be discounted too quickly. More often than not, Chavalit sees things coming long before others do. He probably knows as well as anyone that Thaksin only needs to dig into his deep pockets if there is a channel for him to buy his way back to Thailand. The only question is when.

But politics aside, there are hordes of reasons why Thaksin shouldn't come home, at least not for now. And London is the place for him to be. For Thaksin's sake, somebody should find a way to relay to him at least some of the following:

l We only need one Aung San Suu Kyi at a time. One theory that has been making the rounds in Bangkok is that Thaksin sees himself as potentially another "freedom fighter" in the making. By defying the entry ban imposed by the CNS, the former prime minister hopes he will be put under house arrest the minute he sets foot in Bangkok. And that would set off a "free Thaksin" movement that hopefully would snowball into a mass street protest.

Well, Burma definitely still needs world attention and Thaksin should not try to steal the spotlight from Suu Kyi. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont showed how well he understood the situation when he told reporters over the weekend that what happened with our neighbour (translation: Burma) shouldn't be repeated in Thailand.

l The political hopelessness during five years under Thaksin has driven many normally sensible Thais to seek solace in astrology. The day the military seized power and blocked Thaksin from coming home, they knew that, after all, astrologers were the only people they could trust. Their eerily coinciding predictions that the politically mighty leader would some day find himself exiled to a strange land came true overnight.

As a result astrologers have gained a new prominence and we can be sure that any future political analysis will take their opinions into account. The last thing we superstitious Thais want is for Thaksin to prove the astrologers wrong by coming home.

l Thaksin's departure from London would be a big blow to the Thai community there. They would be deprived of the fun of having someone to vent their fury on. Their otherwise dull life has been made more colourful by the anticipation that they might run into the former prime minister on the street or in restaurants.

A group of Thais had the thrill of their life recently when they encountered Thaksin in a Thai restaurant. Their lunch suddenly turned into a feisty party with all the booing and name calling. Shouting "Thaksin get out!", one lady hurled a half-full glass at the stunned former strongman. Embarrassed - and without security guards to help him break the nose of his assailant - Thaksin timidly walked out of the restaurant in his water-stained jacket followed by two aides.

You can bet that once Thaksin returns from China every Thai in London will be on the lookout again for him. That's all the more reason why Thaksin shouldn't deny his compatriots their daily excitement by going back to Bangkok.

l With the military top brass in disarray and the level of public discontent rising, trying to make sense of what is going on is already a handful for the Thai media. The last thing they need right now is a diversion.

It's already a perfect world for the media as it is. With Thaksin stuck in London and occasionally making noises and with his family members shuttling between Bangkok and his place of exile, there will never be a dearth of news about him.

l Thaksin mustn't forget his crowning moment just months back when he proudly asserted that he had successfully turned his Thai Rak Thai Party into a political establishment. The party would live on, with or without him.

It's understandable that Thaksin is feeling restless about his party's future despite the fact that he has been away for less than two months. But come on! He should be a good CEO and let the party's rank and file prove they can carry on the torch - with or without him around.

l Thaksin's personal lawyer Noppadol Pattama tried to reassure opponents of the former prime minister that he had no intention of sneaking back into the country any time in the near future. If he ever returned, Noppadol asserted, he would not be shy about it and would walk through Suvarnabhumi Airport with his head held high.

But wait a minute! For Thaksin's own sake, please reconsider the idea no matter how attractive it may sound to a man raring to step back into the limelight at any cost. Thaksin might have been so preoccupied with his soul-searching in London, and now in China, that he has become oblivious to all the grumbling and cursing over the mess at the new airport. Just imagine how angry passengers jumping from toilet to toilet looking for a vacant urinal or annoyedly groping their way through the dimly lit waiting lounges would react at the sight of the man responsible for their predicament. Thaksin could be lynched before he even gets to immigration.

Thepchai Yong

The Nation