The UTCC's Consumer Confidence Index has turned upwards for two straight calendar months since the September 19 coup. The index advanced from 82.1 points in September to 83.5 points last month. All related indexes showing the concerns of consumers also hit a seven-month peak.

Confidence in the overall economy improved slightly from 76.4 points in September to 77.7 points last month. Confidence in future income edged up from 92.7 in September to 94.4 points last month, while the index on future employment opportunities ticked up from 77.3 in September to 78.4 last month.

An index figure below 100 shows weak consumer confidence. The October index was based on a survey of 2,248 respondents.

Thanawat Polvichai, director of the UTCC Business and Economic Forecast Centre, attributed the rising tend in all of the indexes to a clearer political situation and the downward trend in retail oil prices.

Diesel declined Bt3.70 per litre last month to Bt23.84, while premium petrol dropped Bt3.20 to Bt25.29.

Other noteworthy developments included the baht's appreciation, which reflected the inflow of foreign direct investment, and the hike in the Bank of Thailand's forecast for this year's economic growth to 4.5-5 per cent, from the earlier 4-5 per cent.

Thanawat said that barring further shocks, consumer confidence should normalise by next year's second quarter.

Some factors that need watching are the widespread flooding, the rising cost of living, exports being crimped by the bulging baht, rising oil prices and interest rates and the continuing conflict in the South.

The Gross Domestic Happiness Index passed 100 points for the first time last month, jumping to 102.2, from 98.6 points in September.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation