The posh London apartment building where ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra lives in exile. It is unclear if he will seek asylum.

The debate on a possible return of deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra to Bangkok has gripped the nation in recent days. But the real question is not about his actual return but the way Thaksin is negotiating to get out of his political predicament.

While the news headlines are focusing on the timing for Thaksin to end his self-imposed exile, the possibility of his asylum abroad has become a forgotten issue.

Not many people are aware that Thaksin is using his exile as a trump card to pressure the authorities not to penalise him for policy abuses and corruption committed under his leadership.

The interim government has to weigh its prosecution options carefully. Should it decide to try Thaksin, his family members and political cohorts to the fullest extent of the law, the culprits may opt to flee rather than face justice.

In case Thaksin decides to apply for political asylum either in London or in Stockholm, the social divisions may intensify and will likely leave a permanent scar in Thai political history.

Political conflicts should be resolved by forging a compromise and not a purge. The country must learn its lesson from forcing late former premier Pridi Banomyong into permanent exile in November 1947.

With Pridi living in Beijing and later in Paris, his rivals and supporters never had a proper closure and their divisiveness remains to this day.

Thaksin is keeping tabs on the political situation from his London apartment. He frequently meets his close aides flown in from Bangkok. He also keeps in touch with the interim government and military leaders via telephone calls.

Based on leaks from his friends and foes, it is clear that Thaksin is keen to know about the graft cases the Asset Examination Committee (AEC) is building against him.

Thaksin's fate and any possible retaliatory measures will emerge in the next few weeks, coinciding with the AEC's unveiling of cases involving the deposed government.

On Saturday, Thaksin sent a clear signal ahead of any looming court battles that he wanted a negotiated settlement on the charges that he could face, instead of availing himself to due process alone.

By triggering the debate on his return, Thaksin has forced the interim government to comment about his future. He appears to want to get an advance glimpse on how the pending cases will proceed.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont has made it clear that he is open for talks with Thaksin. The two have remained in telephone contact.

The local press focused on Thaksin's telephone conversation about his possible return, but failed to highlight Surayud's remarks that under his leadership, he would aim to pre-empt any politicians from living in exile.

In his remarks on Saturday, Surayud wanted to convey his concern about Thaksin being stuck in asylum and the government's readiness to reconcile with him, and pave the way for his eventual return.

Once the AEC launches its inquiries into specific cases involving Thaksin, it will become clear whether he will choose to defend himself from London or in Bangkok. It is unlikely that an astute man like Thaksin will hastily end his exile before learning about his charges.

Should the pending cases target him instead of his cohorts, he may find it convenient to fight from the safety of his overseas home.

Martial law might be lifted after the prosecution and the defence put all of their arguments on the table. The political volatility persists because of the suspense involving the pre-trial preparations rather than the actual prosecution.

The scenario that Surayud is trying to avoid at all cost is for Thaksin to save his skin by eluding the law.

With a fortune of many billions, Thaksin can surely live a life of luxury anywhere in the world.

But his absence means his disturbing legacy will linger and social divisions may never properly heal.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation