The most pressing problem facing the country's new finance tsar is not reforming arcane tax legislation or balancing the budget.

It is, in fact, juggling the political hot potato that is the national lottery.

How Finance Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula handles the controversial lottery will be a test of his financial stewardship. Many may judge the entire government by how the chips fall over this.

Pridiyathorn has promised to lay his cards on the table this week.

Opponents of the contentious two- and three-digit lottery accuse it of breeding a national gambling addiction. They accuse allegedly corrupt politicians of using its massive proceeds to further their own power.

The numbers game was introduced by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bid to render underground betting obsolete. It lures players with a minimum jackpot each draw of Bt20 million - but that can reach Bt100 million.

It is a magnet for gambling-crazy Thais and a cash cow for the Government Lottery Office (GLO).

Like most of the Thaksin-era "populist" policies, the lottery proved an instant hit among the rural and urban poor.

In fact, it is considered by low-income and blue-collar Thailand as a part of day-to-day life - a basic necessity. Critics call it an addiction - an opiate of the masses.

One of its attractions is the dream of instant riches in a country where the paths to wealth are narrow and few and the fruits of the economic explosion of the past 40 years have been shared by a select elite.

So, every first and sixteenth of the month millions across the country crowd the television or radio with a racing heart to catch the lucky numbers.

The next morning newspapers splash lurid headlines cataloguing the latest prize-winners and jackpot millionaires.

Faced with the harsh reality that the lottery is an institution, Pridiyathorn vowed he would not abolish the two- and three-digit flutter.

However, he has promised transparent management of the GLO and administration of massive lottery profits.

There have been accusations the lottery pot has been misused by politicians for years. Parliamentary oppositions have accused finance ministers and their underlings of skimming GLO cash to feather their political and personal nests.

However, there are as many views regarding the future of the lottery as there are experts.

Permanent secretary for Finance Suparut Kawatkul defends the transparency of its management.

Outspoken economist Ammar Siamwalla, a consultant to the Thailand Development Research Institute and one of 19 economic advisers named by the junta shortly after the September 19 coup, has no objections.

"It is one way of fund raising. But, the problem lies in the financial management of the lottery, which lacks transparency," Ammar said.

Medhi Krongkaew, tax expert and a deputy prime minister in the Chuan Leekpai administration from 1997 to 2000, as well as a member of the newly appointed National Counter Corruption Commission, concedes he holds conflicting views. On one hand, he wants to see the lottery unfettered by red tape and restrictions. On the other, he worries about the impact of gambling on the poor.

He believes the introduction of the two-and three-digit game may have increased lottery addiction. But, there may be a way out by associating betting with saving - akin to Government Savings Bank and Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives premium saving certificates.

And he counsels fewer massive jackpots to cool the frenzy generated by dreams of Bt100-million pay days.

Sangsit Piriyarangsan - university lecturer, author and good-governance advocate who studied both the government and underground lotteries - said if the jackpot was abolished, much of what is spent on the legal version would pour back into the black market.

Sangsit estimated current spending on illicit lotto was about Bt200 billion - that is just 40 per cent to 50 per cent what it took in before the Thaksin government introduced its legal tickets.

Some corrupt police still offer protection to dishonest operators in exchange for kickbacks.

Sangsit did not think the underground lottery would vanish until the country succeeded in law-enforcement reform.

To stem the popularity of gambling the government could try a campaign similar to its anti-tobacco efforts with warnings printed on tickets.

Thai Chamber of Commerce University economist Sauwanee Thairungroj estimated the two- and three-digit lottery was worth Bt33.17 billion in 2004 and Bt40.47 billion last year. Each player spent an average of Bt50.73 on the two- and three-digit game, and Bt1,347 on the underground alternative.

The GLO reported net income to the end of July of Bt28.28 billion.

The popularity of the lottery demonstrates, more or less, the weakness of both politics and the economy.

Finding a winning combination to this will require the finance minister and his government to have both the wisdom of Solomon and an awful lot of help from Lady Luck.

Wichit Chaitrong

The Nation