The Export Promotion Department has drawn up an initial projection of 10-12 per cent growth in 2007, estimating the value of exports at US$140 billion to $143 billion (Bt5.2 trillion to Bt5.4 trillion). However, this figure has yet to be considered by private sector representatives.

The forecast is a slight drop from the growth of 15-17 per cent experienced this year, when the value of exports is expected to be between $127 billion and $130 billion. The forecast drop is in line with global trends predicting an economic slowdown, particularly in markets such as the United States, Japan, the European Union and developing countries in Asia.

Chantra Purnariksha, director-general of the department, said Thailand had successfully boosted exports to newer markets such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America, Taiwan, Canada, South Korea, Burma, China, Australia and Hong Kong.

A few years ago, the ministry drew up a plan to boost exports to new markets in an effort to avoid the risks incumbent in the Kingdom's traditional markets of the US, the EU and Japan. Previously, the ministry had aimed for 30 per cent of exports to reach new markets. Under the new strategy, the target for these markets will be increased to 40 per cent.

"So far, exports to new markets have accounted for 42.4 per cent of the Kingdom's total exports. [This is] higher than our target. In particular, exports to targeted markets grew by 25 per cent in the first eight months this year," Chantra said.

Exports were valued at $83.5 billion in the first eight months of the year, a 16.6-per-cent jump on the same period last year.

Negative factors that are expected to slow global economic growth next year include fluctuating oil prices, rising inflation, issues arising from terrorism, and increasing non-tariff barriers.

According to the International Monetary Fund, global trade will grow by just 7.6 per cent next year compared to 8.9 per cent this year. World economic growth will drop off slightly, from 5.1 per cent to 4.9 per cent.

As would be expected, this slowdown will affect Thailand's major trading partners. The US economy is predicted to grow 2.9 per cent next year compared to 3.1 per cent this year, Japan's growth is expected to fall from 2.7 per cent to 2.1 per cent, the EU's growth is expected to fall to 2 per cent from 2.4 per cent, and growth in developing Asian countries is predicted to fall by an average of 10 basis points.

To ensure the Kingdom's export target is reached, the department has revised its export promotion strategies to ensure market access and deepen market penetration.

Chantra said it had altered its work from pure export promotion to focus also on import issues. In addition, the working structure of the department has been restructured to better serve various market environments.

She said the new approach would encourage Thailand to not only boost trade but also to attract more foreign investment.

The plans include helping domestic manufacturers find new sources of raw materials, promoting domestic enterprises to offshore companies, connecting traders with logistics service providers and networking with major global retailers.

"The department will promote exports under a concept of a sustainable growth because these activities will continually benefit the country's exports in the following years," said Chantra.

Thai enterprises will be encouraged to become more efficient in order to compete in the international market. The department has established a programme to train businesses with varying degrees of knowledge, from elementary to advanced. It has also set up a business consulting centre to encourage local traders to make the jump to international trading.

Manufacturers and traders will be taught step by step how to trade in overseas markets, said Chantra.

Under the plan to link world suppliers with Thai manufacturers and exporters, the department has already lined up contracts with retail giants such as Carrefour, Sears Holding, Wal-Mart, Tesco, Fonclre Euris, Federated Department, PPR, Karstadt Quelle AG, Daiei Inc, JC Penny, Marks &Spencer, Da chang and El Cortes Ingles. Most Thai products sold to these retail chains are foods, gifts or decorative items.

Chantra said the department would connect with more retail giants in both traditional and new markets next year. Retailers in Turkey, Greece, Nigeria and the Middle East will be targeted.

The department also intends to open new export offices in Nigeria and in Dalian, China.

Achara Pongvutitham,

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation