The university forecast that next year's economic growth will be a consequence of the new, clear-cut political situation and a fall in oil prices. However, this year's growth will not be more than 4.3 per cent because of damage already done by political turbulence.

The director of the university's Centre for International Trade Studies, Aat Pisanwanich, said political stability would increase consumption, tourism and investment.

Based on a university study, Aat said exports would be a key factor next year in supporting gross domestic product growth. Exports will grow between 11.5 per cent and 13.5 per cent, while imports will grow 8 per cent to 10 per cent.

Next year's trade deficit should not be higher than US$2 billion (Bt75 billion), while the country's current account surplus is forecast to reach $6 billion. The inflation rate will fall from 4.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent before the end of this year.

"The newly appointed team of economic ministers is a key to encouraging the Kingdom's economic growth," Aat said. "All ministers have high potential to operate the country's economy, while they will have no intervention from the political side."

However, he said the administration's term in office was too short. It should have at least two years in order to restructure the roadmap for every government agency.

Aat suggested that the government continue some policies that are providing advantages and eliminate others with no benefits for the country's sustainable growth.

Among the projects he said should be scrapped were the Small, Medium and Large Village Fund and the so-called "1-Million Cows" project.

The government should revise all free-trade agreements, whether they are already concluded or in the negotiations process, he said.

It should also set a clear and urgent target for the Kingdom's development into an industrialised country, while solving the problem of corruption to bolster foreign investors' confidence.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai 

The Nation