There has been much speculation about the people selected for cabinet jobs. If the new premier started with 10 points, by now he has about eight if we accept his statement that the people he picked would reflect reality. That could mean bad choices.

It would be no surprise if Surayud's cabinet included no new faces. Indeed, several of the people whose names have been floated are experienced and fairly capable with routine and mundane tasks, though they are light on spectacular achievements.

We can expect exclamations of satisfaction and disappointment over cabinet members. It is inevitable that we will have to bear chair-warmers - weather-beaten men of yesterday who are there just to fill empty seats.

Once the first impression fades, we can move on to forming a perception of the newcomers by assessing their track records, attitudes and signs of competence in carrying out assignments. At this point, the new premier could see his rating slip to either seven or six after a brief honeymoon period.

A lack of young administrators with strong potential would make the public feel that it should not expect much in terms of serious attempts to reform the country's political, economic or social structures to create a new environment that favours stable progress towards sustainable security and long-term harmony.

We might be expecting more than Surayud and his team can deliver in just a year. If the cabinet includes the people whose names have been floated, then the public has enough reason to immediately downgrade its expectations further.

The task of rebuilding the nation requires exceptional political will to deal with obstacles and adversity, not to mention the subversive elements of the remnants of Thaksin's cronies and political attack dogs who even now are creating nuisances and hissing threats of grass-roots mass protests if Thai Rak Thai Party is dissolved by a court order.

Whether Surayud will win the public's confidence with his cabinet remains doubtful. If he fails to display a firm hand by picking hard-charging cabinet members and settles instead for conservatives or conformists then we can expect a chummy group that will avoid antagonising each other in favour of the old-boy network and clubhouse camaraderie.

This is not pessimistic. Based on Thai political tradition this is realistic.

We just got rid of a wealthy businessman-turned-politician who had lost power after more than five years of unfettered populism.

The lofty ideals espoused by the former government included a hollow promise to eradicate poverty in six years. What we have now is a huge number of debt-ridden grass-roots people who are lost in a cruel capitalist environment, not knowing how to repay their debts.

Having a leader whose faults go to the opposite extreme would be too much. Scaling down the speed of national development in favour of a sufficiency economy might be a good idea based on the Thai traditions of modesty and agrarian society. The world of business and high finance can continue, but without forcing the rest of the population to take on such high costs.

Considering the fast pace at which the world evolves, maybe our men of yesterday have not yet outlasted their usefulness. They can revive old traditions and ways of life to help achieve a sufficiency economy. This would restore our social values and good sense, which have been blurred by the greed-driven aspirations of Thaksinomics.

Surayud will have to ensure that he can get along with the cabinet members and show a flair for management. He should have less concern for matters on the economic front while concentrating more on national security. This should include a quick end to terrorism in the three southernmost provinces. He must also prevent any potential troubles by Thaksin's cronies and goons.

With less than a year left for his term, there is no time to waste. Known for having a no-nonsense character and rigid military discipline, Surayud must get down to serious business, even if it means acting like a slave-driver.

He should know that beyond the chronic problems waiting to be resolved, unforeseen complications surely lie in wait. What's more, his success or failure will in the end determine whether Thaksin will have any chance of regaining political power and reclaiming the national leadership.

Let's hope such a dreadful scenario does not take shape. Let the euphoria over the ouster of the crooks and their partners in crime linger on a bit longer.

Sopon Onkgara