On the surface, the mass exodus of Thai Rak Thai Party members could be seen as a plain attempt to escape from being banned from politics for five years - the new penalty promulgated by the coup makers.

But below the surface, it's not as simple as that, as former deputy leader Somsak Thepsutin, who led the breakout, might be harbouring a hidden agenda.

Somsak is no stranger to defecting. When party leader Thaksin Shinawatra came under heavy pressure from street protesters, Somsak was plotting to topple him from the party's top post.

Somsak was one of the "Paeseno six" who reportedly had a plan to stage a political coup by seizing the party from Thaksin and backing then deputy leader Somkid Jatusripitak to take over. News of the group's dinner meeting made Thaksin very angry, which caused Somkid to hesitate in carrying out the intrigue.

When Thaksin appeared to be cornered, Somsak was also the first of the party's executive members to dare to bear down on Thaksin, asking him to declare his political intentions before the October 15 election.

Known as a veteran political tactician, Somsak always senses developments faster than others. He has a sharp nose for news and political trends. He is bright and can predict political incidents.

Whenever Somsak makes any move, all politicians turn their eyes on him. So when he resigned, observers couldn't help but think he might have a secret game plan up his sleeve.

Somsak said he wanted to help overcome the divide in the country. He said he realised the objective of the coup-makers, who wanted to end political conflicts and foster reconciliation.

His other reason was he still needs to help villagers and he feared that he would be misunderstood as working on a political movement, so he quit the party.

If Somsak really meant that, it implies that he wanted to send a signal, or do something (in this case, resign from the party) for the coup-makers, so that the party's executive members still in the country would never move against the coup in favour of his old master Thaksin.

It seems Somsak's actions have supported the purpose of the September 19 putsch.His leaving shows he wants to distance himself from Thaksin and the party. He might wish to safeguard his political career. And he might have wanted to appeal for sympathy from the junta in the hope they wouldn't punish him harshly.

Somsak's abandoning the party demonstrates that he thinks he can escape from a possible Constitution Court verdict to dissolve the party and bar its executives from politics for five years.

But for that reason, it wasn't necessary for the members to resign as early as they did. It would have been better to wait and learn about the court's verdict before making a decision. It wouldn't be too late for them to wait until one day before the court's ruling and then resign.

No one knows for sure whether the Thai Rak Thai Party will be dissolved. In fact, the 27th announcement of the Council for Democratic Reform might have been intended as just a threat to the party members. But it worked, as hundreds of them bailed out.

When the party members fled, the master, who is now in political exile in London, could see no way to move. Finally he was forced to abandon the leader's seat.

As all eyes are waiting for the court's ruling, for the time being the resignations led by Somsak - who once was regarded as a king-maker but now has turned out to be a destroyer - have relegated the Thai Rak Thai Party to history.

Thaksin, like Julius Caesar before he died at the hands of Brutus, must have uttered "Et tu, Somsak?"

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation