Sahust Pratuknukul, assistant governor of policy at Egat, said two scenarios for fuel sources were under consideration. In the first one, coal may fuel 40 per cent of total power production, natural gas another 40 per cent and imported power sources and biomass the rest.

However, Egat may reduce the proportion of coal to 24 per cent in the second scenario, if the plan faces strong opposition from the public due to environmental concerns. In that case, natural gas will account for 56 per cent, and the remaining 20 per cent will come from overseas power sources and bio mass, Sahust told a seminar held by the Economic Reporters Association.

Today, about 15 per cent of the country's electricity is generated from coal, while the proportion in China is up to 40 per cent.

Egat is working on the 2011-2021 Power Development Plan, or PDP, for submission to the Energy Ministry's consideration shortly. The plan's thrust is to increase purchases of coal to reduce the country's current high dependency on natural gas. Sahust said such reliance could pose a risk to a secure power supply in the future.

By 2011, the natural gas left in the Gulf of Thailand's gas fields will not be sufficient. Thailand would be left having to import more natural gas from foreign sources, such as Vietnam and Burma, or having to import liquefied natural gas from abroad, which costs more than coal.

That would make power plants fuelled by natural gas more expensive to run, leading to higher electricity tariffs and reduced energy stability.

"Coal power plants should have the capacity of generating 700 megawatts to 1,000 megawatts each. The original PDP stipulated that in the future, the power plants fuelled by coal should have combined capacity of 3,000 megawatts to 4,000 megawatts," Sahust said.

Modern coal power plants should not pollute the environment like Egat's Mae Moh power plant in Lampang that became the focus of a controversy over lignite coal. New power plants should be located close to a deep-sea port or inside an industrial estate, he said.

Egat is looking at potential locations for the new power plants. Potential sites include one in Chumpon's Patiu district and industrial parks in the central region.

Before construction starts on a new power plant, Egat will need to hold public hearings to prevent any misunderstandings.

Egat is drawing up an electricity demand forecast for 2011-2021, which its board will approve by early November. After that, it will forward the forecast to the Energy Ministry for the minister's nod.

The draft forecast assumes annual economic growth of 5-5.5 per cent, but Egat has recently lowered the growth estimates in the first two years to 4.5 per cent each. Base consumption is around 21,000 megawatts a year, with an increase of 5-6 per cent a year.

Viraphol Jirapraditkul, deputy director-general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, said several developed countries have shifted towards coal. For instance, European countries use coal for 40-41 per cent of their power needs. However, in 10-15 years, countries will migrate towards natural gas.

A report from the US Energy Department found that at present, around 40 per cent of electricity generated worldwide came from coal, 20 per cent from natural gas, less than 10 per cent from alternative energy, 18 per cent from nuclear and the rest from oil.

Watcharapong Thongrung

The Nation