Pridiyathorn

He said the scenes of a turbulent Thailand shown abroad were calmer than people might have imagined.

"The image of the people greeting the tanks and taking pictures with the military on the streets, as carried by CNN, helped calm the nervousness [abroad] quite significantly," he said.

"The pictures said more than words. Moreover, CNN's correspondent reporting about the event and about the reasons behind the coup also helped create an understanding that the coup was inevitable to solve the political problems, which could not be resolved through normal means."

Pridiyathorn was speaking from his office at the Bank of Thailand. The central bank chief emerged a day after the September 19 coup as one of the potential candidates to take over as Thailand's next premier. The business and financial community voiced strong support if he were to be picked for the top job. For under his economic leadership over the past five years, Thailand has achieved strong macroeconomic stability, with low foreign debt and rising international reserves of more than US$60 billion.

Initially, there were fears that the Thai stock market could crash and the baht would wobble in the aftermath of the coup. Some local securities analysts warned that the stock market could tumble by 5 to 10 per cent. Yet the market and the baht held relatively steady.

Foreign investors had more confidence in the Thai financial markets than local investors, who fled the scene. Foreign institutions were net buyers of Thai stocks on September 21 and 22, while trading of the baht was rather calm.

Pridiyathorn said money was flowing out of the US and into Asia, including Thailand, last week. This helped cushion local stocks, whose valuations were still attractive. It also helped stabilise the baht. Indeed, the baht even appreciated in the aftermath of the coup because of the capital inflow to Thai assets.

Pridiyathorn and Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, have been listed by local papers as candidates to be the next prime minister. Both have formidable reputations, not only in Thailand but also overseas for their leadership qualities.

But the next prime minister at this point may not be an economic man. The Thai economy is running almost by itself. Although the country has not had a sitting government since February this year, the economy is still growing at a satisfactory rate - 4 to 5 per cent. It's become part of the global economy. And with exports and imports equivalent to more than 120 per cent of gross domestic product, it can sustain most domestic hiccups.

Pridiyathorn assured that the economy would do fine this year, as it's virtually running on automatic mode. So the country probably needs a new leader who can tackle domestic stability and security instead. Unrest continues in the deep South, and much may need to be done on national reconciliation.

We asked the BOT chief if a man from the world of economics could solve the prolonged crisis in the deep South?

"No way," he said, adding the crisis was unlikely to be resolved within one year - during the interim government's term - but would need a fresh start to bring the violence to an end.

Pridiyathorn would not say it he would take up a Cabinet post in the interim government. "My wife has told me not to talk about it until it really happens," he explained.

But it is widely speculated that he will become head of the interim regime's economic team, and take over the finance portfolio.

Earlier this week, the military chiefs appointed Pridiyathorn to head an economic advisory council. But it's not clear yet whether this advisory council will provide recommendations to the military council or the new interim government. Advisory panels were also set up to consider national reconciliation and social justice, plus good governance, and foreign affairs.

Pridiyathorn was also picked to be a member of the panel that will probe the assets of the former PM and his Cabinet, chaired by Sawat Chotepanich, the former Supreme Court president. The central bank's role is to trace money flows from any suspicious transactions.

Pridiyathorn said the new prime minister had to be respectable and capable, and he should also be independent from the military council. Former prime minister Anand Panyarachun, for instance, was able to establish independence for his technocrat-oriented administration in running the country after being appointed by military rulers in 1991.

Another important quality for the new prime minister would be having an understanding of social psychology - to work with the masses and re-create social unity, he said.

Anoma Srisukkasem,

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation