ANALYSIS
Tarisa first female to head BOT?

Seems to have the edge over Bandid, Thirachai if Pridiyathorn joins interim govt
As Bank of Thailand Governor MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is widely tipped to assume a key position in the interim government, the door is wide open for a number of candidates to follow his respectable performance at the central bank over the past five years. Pridiyathorn's name has been floated as a possible candidate for the interim premiership. However, observers expect him to eventually settle with being a key economic minister. His departure from the central bank does therefore seem imminent, leaving the race open for his successor from both inside and outside the organisation. As things stand, deputy governor Tarisa Watanagase apparently has the edge over the other two deputy governors - Bandid Nijathaworn and Swangchit Chaiyawat - as well as over the secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala. Thirachai is a former BOT deputy governor, who is expected to be on the shortlist of candidates for the next governorship. However, analysts believe Tarisa has a better chance due to her seniority, capabilities and neutrality. If appointed, Tarisa would be the first female governor and the central bank's third generation after the 1997 economic crisis. The new governor will be tasked with the difficult assignment of strengthening the efficiency of monetary policy, standardising regulations in line with international requirements, and stabilising the currency amid fluctuating capital movements stemming from globalisation. Her seniority is not a major factor in enhancing her candidacy, though. In case Pridiyathorn decides to step down, Tarisa is considered the front runner because of her courage in maintaining the central bank's neutral stance of countering inflation and ensuring economic stability against the priorities of the government of the ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, namely, to prop up economic growth. Her resolve in opposing political intervention was recognised last year when she fiercely blocked the Finance Ministry's attempt to snatch away the central bank's role as the long-term regulator by establishing a new supervising body under the ministry. Although some critics claimed the BOT wanted to hold on to its power, Tarisa fought for what she believed in. As a deputy governor, she did not want to see politicians exploit loose supervision by getting easy loans from financial institutions, one of the causes of the financial crisis in 1997. The central bank was also adamant that regulations must coordinate with monetary policy, allowing the objectives to be achieved. "She makes all decisions for the country's benefit rather than for her future career," said a source from the central bank. Holding a doctoral degree in economics from Washington University, Tarisa has accumulated extensive experience in management, even though her direct involvement in monetary policy may be less than that of Bandid and Thirachai. However, she is known to be a well-versed economist and good decision-maker. "She is a very nice person, has firm working principles and never blames anyone, causing her to be a loved and respected executive. She always gathers complete information before making any decision, so Pridiyathorn listens to and trusts her very much," said the source. Bandid, meanwhile, is seen as the most experienced macroeconomist at the central bank. He has influence in the Monetary Policy Committee's decision-making, leading to changes in interest rates, which impact both the household and business sectors. He has often made the right economic forecasts and reacts effectively and promptly, sending clear signals to the market. Bandid is, however, many years younger than Tarisa and has never being in a supervisory role, which is the major challenge Thailand is facing right now in raising its standards to the international level. The SEC's secretary general, Thirachai, has often been tipped to return to the central bank. He has higher seniority than Tarisa and strong and varied experience in monetary policy, supervising the foreign-exchange market. He also has accumulated experience in capital markets as the SEC's top executive. "[But] his tendency to react to things quickly and his egotism could easily lead to a mistake," said the source. He is unlikely to represent the central bank's stance on maintaining stability in the economy and the banking system as well as Tarisa, especially when Bangkhunprom Palace, where the central bank is located, finds itself in a political storm. His closeness to Pridiyathorn's rivals could also hinder his candidacy. According to the BOT's selection process, the bank proposes the name of its preferred candidate, but the finance minister gives the final approval. Amid an economic slowdown and political change, Bangkhunprom Palace is celebrating its centenary this year. Yet, it remains to be seen whether the event will be celebrated alongside having the first female central bank governor.
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